On Tuesday, California’s Applicant Review Panel sits down to narrow the pool of remaining applicants. The Panel’s
responsibility, under the regulations adopted by the State Auditor, include ensuring the final pool reasonably reflects California’s
complex diversity.

As stated in Proposition 11, California’s diversity
is defined as "including, but not limited to, racial, ethnic,
geographic, and gender." The ARP’s June 11th decisions, which reduced the pool to its current 622 applicants, were done based
on individual evaluations of each applicant. As it reduces the pool
from 622 down to the 120 people it will invite for interviews, the Panel is expected to begin looking at the pool as more of a group.

Earlier postings evaluated the overall demographics of the pool of 622. Yet the Panel’s
decisions are more accurately evaluated by looking within each of the
three separate pools: Democrats, Republicans, and Others. The Rose
Institute acquired the full database of applicants (through a public
records request) and analyzed the demographics of each pool. The
results indicate the opportunities and challenges facing the ARP.

The key number for any analysis is 14. There will be 14 commissioners
on the final Citizens Redistricting Commission: 5 Democrats, 5
Republicans, and 4 Others. To constitute 30 percent of the Commission,
a group (whether ethnic, regional, economic, age, or whatever) needs 4
people. To constitute 15 percent of the Commission, the group needs
only 2 people on the Commission. Even groups with only a few members
remaining in the pool can still end up with a significant number of
seats on the Commission.

The Pool of 622


There are now 331 Democrats, 182 Republicans, and 109 "other"
applicants (these numbers differ slightly from those released at the
last ARP meeting
because of updated numbers from the Auditor). Looking at ethnicity,
Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders are reasonably evenly distributed
among the three pools, as they constitute 10 percent of the remaining
Democratic applicants, 9 percent of the Republicans, and 5 percent of
the Others. Latinos are 12 percent of Democrats, 12 percent of
Independents, and 6 percent of Republicans. African American applicants
are more concentrated: they constitute 15 percent of Democratic
applicants, 6 percent of Others, and only 2 percent of Republicans. The
Democratic pool is 60 percent White. The Other pool is 68 percent
White. And the Republican pool is 80 percent White. In the Democratic
pool 56 percent are male, as are 76 percent of those in the Republican
pool and 63 percent of those in the Other pool.

Economically, the three partisan pools are remarkably similar. Those
earning over $250,000 are 7 to 9 percent of each of the three groups.
Twenty-seven to 33 percent of each group earn $125,000 to $250,000.
Thirty-three to 37 percent of each group earn $75,000 to $125,000. 
Eighteen to 22 percent of each partisan pool earn $35,000 to $75,000,
and five to ten percent of each group report earning less than $35,000.

Narrowing, and Balancing, the Pool

As has been noted, these demographics are not yet representative of California. The
result is that White, Democratic, male applicants are the most likely
applicants be eliminated between now and the interview stage.  The
Other pool will be reduced from 109 to 40 before interviews begin,
while the Democratic pool must be reduced from 331 to 40 and the
Republican pool from 139 to 40. With 228 women remaining in total, 26
percent of the women currently in the pool could reasonably expect to
advance to the total group of 120 that will be invited to interview.
Among the Other pool, half of the 40 women currently in the pool are
likely to advance, as are 47 percent of the 43 remaining Republican
women and 14 percent of the 145 remaining Democratic women, assuming
the Panel attempts to keep gender balance in each pool. In contrast,
under that same assumption, less than 1 in 9 of the remaining 186 male
Democrats should expect to advance to an interview.

The Pool of 31

At its June 11th meeting, the Panel revealed that 31 applicants
received positive initial evaluations from all three of the Panel
members. It is likely that these 31 will be the first group nominated
for the 120 member "to interview" pool. This group of 31 includes 17
Democrats, 8 Republicans, and 6 Others. If they are put into the
interview pool, that means only 23 more interview spots remain for
Democrats, 32 for Republicans, and 34 for Others. Among the 31, 5 are
Asian American (4 Democrats and 1 Republican). Two are African American
(both Democrats). Two are Latino (1 Democrat and 1 Other). One is a
Pacific Islander (a Republican).  And 21 are White (10 Democrats, 6
Republicans, and 5 Others). Eleven are women (7 Democrats, 3
Republicans and 1 Other), while 20 are men (10 Democrats, 5
Republicans, and 5 Others).

The Form 700 Twist

The ARP is expected to reduce the pool down close to 120 at its
meetings this week. But the deadline for the applicants to complete the
Form 700 report is not until later in July. The Commission must ensure
that it still has 120 applicants to interview even if some (or many)
decide not to complete the Form 700.

The 623rd Applicant

Unofficial reports from the Auditor’s office indicate that A’lyce
Baldarelli, applicant #15799, may have been lost in processing and
accidentally excluded from the ARP’s June 11th deliberations. She may
be added back into the pool for ARP consideration tomorrow. She is a
Republican woman from Ontario (San Bernardino County). [h/t to @vkogan for first alerting us to this issue.]