Last Monday I wrote that as many as 34 of the contested races in the June Open Primary could lead to a same party runoff in November: 8 in Congress, 4 in the state Senate, and as many as 22 in the state Assembly. (I have since added one additional assembly race, bringing the total number of possible races up to 35.)
Part 1 looked at the congressional races. Now, I look at the state Senate and Assembly races.
SAME PARTY CONTESTS – SENATE
SD13 (Silicon Valley): A district where the independent voters (NPP-25%) outnumber the Republicans (21%), which is probably why no Republican filed. But three Democrats and a Libertarian did. The top two vote getters in June are expected to be Asm. Jerry Hill and former Asm. Sally Lieber. The two Democrats will face off against each other in November.
SD15 (San Jose): Asm. Jim Beall and former Asm. Joe Coto, both Democrats, are the only two candidates on the June ballot, guaranteeing a Democrat vs. Democrat race in November.
SD35 (Inglewood/Compton/San Pedro): Incumbent Rod Wright has two opponents in this race, a Republican and a fellow Democrat. But with the GOP registration being so low (16%), Democrat Paul Butterfield, a schoolteacher from San Pedro, will most likely come in second behind Wright.
SD1 (Northeastern district): Republican activists in this part of the state have been feuding among themselves for years. The result is that GOP incumbent Ted Gaines finds himself being seriously challenged by Shasta County Supervisor Les Baugh, a fellow Republican (Gaine’s wife, Asm. Beth Gaines is also being challenged). A Democrat and an independent candidate are also on the ballot. A Republican vs. Republican runoff race in November is possible, but with the combined Democratic and NPP registration being 50% (D-30%; NPP20), there is no guarantee.
SAME PARTY CONTEST – ASSEMBLY
There are five Assembly districts where all the candidates on the June ballot are of the same political party (3 Dem; 2 Rep), guaranteeing a same party contest in November.
AD51 (East L.A./Echo Park/Silver Lake): All five candidate are Democrats and three of the five – Arturo Chavez, Jimmy Gomez and Luis Lopez – are running hard.
AD59: (South Los Angeles district): Five candidates are on the ballot – all Democrats – the two top vote getters likely being Gregory Akili and Reggie Jones –Sawyer, both African American.
AD62: (Inglewood/Hawthorn/LAX): Incumbent Democrat Steven Bradford has one opponent on the ballot – Democrat Mervin Evans, a community activist and perennial candidate. Evans should be no serous threat to Bradford.
AD67 (Southeastern Riverside County): Five Republican candidates are on the ballot: William Akana, an educator; Kenneth Dickson, a school board trustee; Bob Magee, a Lake Elsinore City Councilman; Melissa Melendez, also a member of the Lake Elsinore City Council; and Phil Paule, a water district director. No early favorites in this crowded race.
AD76: (N. Coastal San Diego County): A three-candidate all Republican field: Oceanside City Councilman Rocky Chavez, a retired Marine colonel; Carlsbad City Councilwoman Farrah Douglas, an Iranian immigrant; and Sherry Hodges, chief of staff to Asm. Diane Harkey.
There are 14 Assembly Districts that are likely to be same party contest in November (12 Dem;
2 Rep), but because not all the candidates are of the same party, I am not going to guarantee it.
AD5 (Sierra Nevada Mountains/South Lake Tahoe): Three Republicans, two Democrats and one independent are on the June Ballot, but the real contest is between Republicans Frank Bigelow, a member of the Madera County Board of Supervisors, and former state Sen./Asm. Rico Oller. The others have not raised nor spend any serious money. The two Democrats will split up the district’s 32% Democratic registration.
AD10 (Coastal Marin County north to Sonoma): Redistricting required Democratic Asm. Michael Allen, from Santa Rosa, to seek reelection in a district that is mostly new to him and no fewer than four Democrats are challenging him, the most serious being San Rafael City Councilman Marc Levine. A Republican and an independent are also on the ballot. 80% of the voters are non-Republicans (54% Dem; 20% Rep. NPP 22%), so an all-Democratic runoff is likely.
AD13 (Stockton/Tracy): Thee Democrats and two Republicans are on the June ballot. Major contenders are Stockton City Councilwoman Susan Eggman and Marine Corps veteran and system analyst Xochiti Paderes, who is strongly supported by labor. The third Democrat is not a serious contender and the two Republicans are putting in no more than token efforts and they will split up the 34% GOP registration.
AD18 (Oakland/San Leandro): Three Democrats and one Republican in a district where only 10% are registered Republican. The Democrats are Alameda City Councilman Rob Bonta, community college trustee Abel Guillen and transit board member Joel Young. As yet, no clear favorite among the Democrats, all showing over $100,000 cash on hand on the 3/31/12 finance reports. GOP registration is 10%; NPP 20%.
AD19 (West San Francisco/Daly City): Three Democrats and one Republican are on the ballot, but the two top vote getters will be Democrats Phil Ting, the Assessor-Recorder of San Francisco who has been endorsed by most of the city’s political establishment, and Michael Breyer, a late entry into the race and the son of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer. GOP registration is 12%; NPP 31%.
AD20 (Hayward/Castro Valley): Three Democrats, a Republican and an independent are on the June ballot. With GOP registration at 17%, and one of the three Dems not putting on a competitive race, the top two vote getters in the June Primary are likely to be Jennifer Ong, a Filipino American optometrist and Bill Quirk, a Hayward City Councilman, who is supported by labor and the progressive wing the Democratic Party. The spoiler could be Mark Green, the mayor of Union City and former Democrat running as a no party preference candidate. The district’s NPP registration is 23%; Rep. 17%.
AD23 (North Fresno/Sequoia National Forrest): GOP Asm. Linda Halderman is not seeking reelection to this heavily Republican district. Four Republicans and one Democrat are on the ballot. This appears to be a three candidate contest among David DeFrank, a local attorney; Jim Patterson, a former mayor of Fresno who has twice run unsuccessfully for Congress, and Bob Whalen, a member of the Clovis City Council. The third Republican is Vong Mouanoutoua, a paralegal who was born in Laos. The Democratic registration is 35%, so the sole Democrat could sneak into second place, but he appears to be doing nothing more than a token effort.
AD46 (San Fernando Valley) Five Democrats and one Republican in a district that only 18% are registered Republican. The Democrats are: businesswoman Laurette Healey, educator Brian Johnson, attorney Adriano Lecaros, and Adrin Nazarian, chief of staff to L.A. Councilman Paul Krekorian. No early favorites here, but it’s all but guaranteed that the top two vote getters in the June Primary will be Democratic.
AD47 (Rialto): Two Democrats and two Republicans are on the ballot. The two Democrats are Joe Baca, Jr., a former Assembly Member who gave up his seat to run unsuccessfully for state senate, and Chery Brown, who works for Democratic Asm. Wilma Carter and has been endorsed by the California Legislative Black Caucus. The two Republicans will split up the 27% GOP registration, making a Baca/Brown runoff highly likely,
AD50 (Malibu/Santa Monica/West Hollywood): Three Democrats and one Republican are running in a district where only 19% are registered Republican (NPP 23%). Democratic incumbent Betsy Butler moved into this district to seek reelection and is receiving a serious big dollar challenge from Torie Osborn, CEO of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. Santa Monica Mayor Richard Bloom is the third Democrat. Brad Torgan, chair of Log Cabin Republicans – Los Angeles, is putting in a good effort, but most are expecting Butler and Osborn to be the top two vote getters in June.
AD53 (Hollywood/Downtown L.A./Vernon): Assembly Speaker John Pérez has two Democrats and a Republican challenging him. With a GOP registration of 12%, expect fellow Democrat Mike Aldapa, an eastside community organizer, to come in second.
AD57 (SE Los Angeles County): Two Democrats and one Republican are on the ballot. The two Democrats are Ian Charles Calderon, son of the incumbent Democrat who is termed out this year, and former Asm./former correctional peace officer Rudy Bermudez. The GOP registration is only 28.5%, but their candidates in past election have been getting about 38% of the vote. If Republican businessman Noel Jaimes can do the same, he might get one of the two spots.
AD63 (SE Los Angeles County): Three Democrats and one Republican in a district where only 19% are registered Republican. The top two vote getters in the June Primary will be Anthony Rendon, a non-profit director, and Diane Martinez, a member of the Paramount City Council and full-time teacher.
AD69 (Santa Ana/portion of Anaheim): Four Democrats and one Republican who has dropped out of the race – but his name will remain on the ballot. The district has a 54% Latino registration and three of the four Democrats are Latinos, the exception being Tom Daly, the O.C. Clerk-Recorder and former mayor of Anaheim. The other Democrats are: Michele Martinez, a member of the Santa Ana City Council, Julio Perez, a former political director of the O.C. Labor Federation, and Paco Barragan, a CPA and community activist.
I am going to list four that are possible:
AD6 (Folsom/Roseville): Like her husband, Sen. Ted Gaines (see above), GOP Asm. Beth Gaines is receiving a serious challenge from a fellow Republican. Her opponent is attorney Andy Pugno, who ran for the Assembly in 2010, narrowly losing to Richard Pan in the old AD5. The one Democrat on the ballot, Reginald Bronner, is a Navy veteran, retired business executive and self-described political moderate. It’s possible for Gaines and Pugno to be the top two vote getters in June, but for that to happen, Bronner would have to come in below the Democratic base vote.
AD29 (Carmel/Santa Cruz): Santa Cruz County Supervisor Mark Stone, a Democrat, is heavily favored to win this seat. The only question is will fellow Democrat Bob Fultz, a VP of a Silicon Valley startup company, or Republican Tom Walsh, a citizen advocate, come in second.
AD33 (Barstow/Big Bear): Republican incumbent Tim Donnelly is being seriously challenged by Bill Jahn, a member of the Big Bear City Council and president of a construction company. The sole Democrat in the race, John Coffey, works for the Barstow School District and is supported by labor. With Republicans having only a 7-point registration advantage (41% -34%), a two party runoff would be a reach, but possible. The 19% of voters registered NPP might make the difference.
AD79 (Inland San Diego): The district is safely Democratic and four Democrats are on the ballot and all appear to be running competitive races. They are: Rudy Ramirez, a member of the Chula Vista City Council; Sid Voorakkara, a workforce program director; Patricia Washington, an activist for the gay and African American communities; and Shirley Weber, an educator. There are also two Republicans: Lemon Grove Councilwoman Mary England, and Matt Mendoza, who lists his occupation as operations manager. Republican registration is 29% but Whitman and Fiorina got 40% of the vote.
With so may same party contest this November, who is going to pay attention to the few two- party races that will come into play? Actually, the Democrats will be looking to pick up super majorities in both the Senate and Assembly, but more on those in a later post that I will write after the June 5 Open Primary election.