Now that the election season is in full swing with advertisements for a number of ballot initiatives bombarding the airwaves, the California Business Roundtable-Pepperdine University School of Public Policy bi-weekly poll has picked up movement on a some of the ballot measures. Most notably, Proposition 37, which would label genetically modified foods, has fallen dramatically.
Two weeks ago, Prop 37 stood at 66.9% Yes, 22.3% No. The new poll recorded the measure at 48.3% Yes, 40.2% No. The No on 37 campaign has hit the airwaves hard. Chris Condon of M4 Strategies, which conducted the poll, attributed the big drop in support to the “power of advertising.
The CBRT/Pepperdine team felt that advertising clearly moved voters.
The Proposition 30 tax measure dropped below 50% for the first time at 49.5% Yes, 41.7% No. There has been advertising from the No on 30 Committee (of which I am a part). However, the much-reported ads from Molly Munger comparing Prop 30 unfavorably to Proposition 38, her tax increase for the schools, had not aired during the polling period.
Pepperdine professor, Michael Shires, said, “Clearly advertising and conversation are moving things around on that initiative (Prop 30).” Shires noted that the change of less support and more opposition was across the board with all political groups and demographics. The biggest drop in support came from swing voters who are not affiliated with a political party.
The poll measured Proposition 32, the campaign finance measure, roughly the same as last time: 51.4% Yes, 38.3% No. Shires noted the difference in the CBRT/Pepperdine poll with other polls that show Prop 32’s Yes vote below 50% with the No vote greater than the Yes vote.
Shires accounted for the difference by pointing to the difference in polling methods. The CBRT/Pepperdine poll is online. Likely voters can read the ballot measure and other information is made available. Shires suggested that with traditional telephone polls, complex measures are difficult for voters to comprehend causing a number of respondents to say they are voting no.
The entire poll, which follows all 11-ballot measures, can be found here.