The 2016 presidential race just got even wackier —if it could— with former New York City Mayor, Michael R. Bloomberg now toying seriously with making a run.
This comes on the heels of rumors that a Stop-Trump movement is quickly gaining steam. Founder of a media empire, Bloomberg could easily match bankrolls with Trump and vows to spend $1 billion if needed.
Bloomberg probably remains sidelined if Hillary Clinton is the nominee. In a Sen. Ted Cruz vs. Bernie Sanders match-up —by itself a scary prospect for the faint of heart—with either Bloomberg or Trump running as third party insurgents, anything could happen.
Meanwhile there is speculation that the one individual who might be called to the rescue if the GOP mega-funders can join forces and who would have a shot at uniting the warring factions, is House Speaker, Paul Ryan.
A Ryan draft would almost certainly propel Trump to bolt the party and run as an Independent which he threatened to do earlier. If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, a third party candidate probably gives her the White House.
If Bloomberg enters the fray in a four-way battle, the election could end up needing to be settled in the House of Representatives. The last time that occurred was in 1824 in a brawl between hero of the War of 1812, Andrew Jackson; Sec. of State, John Quincy Adams; Sec. of the Treasury, William Crawford; and Henry Clay, the powerful House Speaker.
Under the 12th Amendment when no candidate gets a majority of the electoral votes, the House chooses among the top three popular vote getters with each state having one vote. Jackson easily led in the popular vote but fell short by 32 electoral votes. Clay, who had come in fourth, threw his to Adams denying Jackson the presidency.
Bitter over the defeat, Jackson returned the favor in 1828 becoming President as leader of the newly formed Democratic Party!
I posed the idea of a Paul Ryan or Michael Bloomberg candidacy to influential California elected officials and other community leaders who asked to remain anonymous.
As to Ryan, most felt he could be chosen only at a brokered convention in the event of a deadlock. That is not a strong likelihood if the big money funders and the GOP leadership comprised of moderates, come together and decide to dump Trump perhaps in favor of Sen. Marco Rubio or even John Kasich.
Jeb Bush, the early front-runner, could even re-emerge in that scenario although he is barely an exclamation point at this juncture.
Former sometime Californian, Carly Fiorina, the only GOP woman who briefly took center stage is no longer even mentioned.
The GOP winner-take-all delegate rules which only apply to 16.2% of them also argue against a deadlock which is why candidates will fight hard to rack up primary victories even in states that are solidly Democratic such as California.
But if the GOP race looks increasingly unsettled by May, California may get much more attention as the surviving candidates try to pile up the delegate counts.
The Iowa and New Hampshire outcomes will hold great symbolic importance especially for the leaders (currently Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz). However in the present chaotic environment, the results could prove less meaningful in the long run if they open doors for others lagging behind or waiting in the wings.
One responder said, “no way could Paul Ryan step into that food fight, and no realistic way he would survive if he did. The Tea Party feels this is their time and will brutalize anyone trying to block their candidates at the convention.”
A county supervisor wrote, “I see Paul Ryan well set up whether purposely or not to jump into the race, but given Trump’s potency the GOP has to be thinking along multiple tracks.”
I would ask, why would someone who holds the nation’s third most powerful job give it up when he could be the prohibitive (and untainted) favorite for his party’s presidential nomination in four or eight years if they lose?