Top two creates perverse incentives. Consider the case of Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump.
Newsom is a fierce opponent of Trump’s policies and personality. He’s criticized the president repeatedly and forcefully. And yet, the best outcome for Newsom in the June gubernatorial election would also be good for Trump.
The optimum outcome for Newsom would be for him to place first in the June contest—and for one of three Republicans running to finish second. Such an outcome would effectively end the race. Newsom would be all but certain to beat a Republican in the November top two runoff.
But such an outcome would not be best for Democrats and for the effort to stop President Trump from doing more damage to our country.
For the Democrats and anti-Trumpers, the optimum outcome would be for Newsom and another Democrat, probably Antonio Villaraigosa, to advance to the top two runoff. And ideally, this would be a close race that keeps Democrats engaged – and makes Democratic voters from across the state and from every demographic come to the polls in huge numbers. A governor’s race without a Republican might also reduce Republican turnout in November.
Such an outcome would give a huge boost to Democratic Congressional candidates trying to flip Republican seats in November. And making big gains in California is crucial for Democratic efforts to retake the House, which would provide a crucial check on Trump – and perhaps a venue to impeach him.
So Iif you’re a supporter of Gavin Newsom who also wants to stop the president, you want Newsom to win—but you also want his victory to be very difficult.