The 2020 election is shaping up as the “undo” election with proposed ballot measures hoping to undo high profile and often controversial past measures approved by voters: Proposition 13 and the high-speed rail.
Already qualified for the 2020 ballot is the split roll property tax establishing separate taxing requirements for business and residential property. The proposal would tax most commercial property at market value bringing in billions of new tax dollars. When Proposition 13 passed in 1978, a separate ballot measure to create a split roll was rejected by voters. Now tax increase advocates want to try again to begin the dismantling of Proposition 13.
This approach will meet with a firestorm of opposition from the business community and taxpayer groups. Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association that is the prime defender of Proposition 13 stated, “We have already established a strong and broad-based coalition to fight this assault on the most important taxpayer protection Californians have. A split roll property tax is an $11 billion tax increase that will increase costs for everyone at a time when the high cost of living is already driving companies and residents out of the state.”
Proponents could pull the split roll measure before it is on the ballot. A well-healed opposition campaign over the next year might discourage the effort, or a legislative counter proposal could influence whether the measure goes forward, as might the state and country’s economic picture at the time. But expect a donnybrook over any change to Proposition 13 that is on the ballot.
The proposed measure on the high-speed rail has not qualified for the ballot yet and there is no indication if the resources will be available to qualify. Unlike the split roll proposal that seeks changes in Prop 13, the roads and infrastructure measure establishing a lock box for transportation funds calls for the total end of high-speed rail.
The proposal forbids the use of public funds on the bullet train project except those funds needed to close it down, setting a deadline of June 30, 2021.
The rail’s champion, Jerry Brown, will be retired by the time the measure is on the ballot, if it qualifies, and the attitude of the new governor would certainly influence any effort to close down the project, which has made some strides toward completion. Money to complete and operate the train is still an overriding problem.
While the 2018 election ballot measures have not stirred much emotion in voters with issues like lunch breaks for ambulance workers, a daylight savings time change, and a slew of bonds, more emotions will be roused over efforts to change or cut down California icons.
Voters in 2020 may have a chance to affirm or reject the direction set by earlier California voters on major policy issues.