The Professionalization of California’s Low Wage Workforces
In January I did a posting on the latest jobs projections by
EDD, indicating that the great majority of jobs in California’s future will not
be the heralded "knowledge jobs". As is the case today in California’s job
structure, the majority of job openings in the next decade are projected to be
the personal and home care aides, retail salespersons, cashiers, food
preparation and serving workers, registered nurses, customer service repress,
office clerks and laborers, With the exception of registered nurses, all of
these occupational categories have 2010 median wages below $30,000.
The posting brought several inquiries concerning the
relationship of California’s workforce system to this projected job structure.
What if any policies might improve the wages and mobility of workers in these
jobs? What is the role of the local Workforce Investment Boards (WIBs) in trying
to influence the structure of jobs in California as well as the skills of
workers?
The Long and Winding Road Back to California Payroll Job Levels
The state job numbers announced last Friday showed a net
payroll job gain of 12,500 jobs. This is not a lot compared to total California payroll jobs of
nearly 14 million. However, this job gain constituted nearly 20% of the 63,000
net payroll jobs added throughout the entire United States.
We are likely on the road back to payroll job growth in
California, though it will be a long and winding road, given the extent of
payroll job losses since 2006 of over 1.4 million payroll jobs, and the
obstacles ahead. Beginning on the plus side, several sectors that have been
struggling showed growth, particularly construction and manufacturing.
California Job Growth and Early Childhood Programs
Within the job training world, there are those writers who receive far more attention in the
media than they deserve (Robert Reich), and those that receive far less. Timothy
Bartik is among the latter. An economist with the Upjohn Institute for
Employment Research in Michigan, Bartik’s work is consistently characterized by
serious research and original thought. Over
the past decade he has written a series
of articles and book s on labor
demand policies, wage
subsidies, and a national
job creation tax credit.
Bartik’s latest work focuses on early childhood programs,
and their link to a region’s job growth. This work arises in part his own
experience as a school board member in Kalamazoo Michigan, from 2000-2008. In
this capacity, he had opportunity to observe pre-school programs, particularly
those focused on low-income families, in the context of allocating limited Kalamazoo
School District resources.
“Now for the Hard Part” in California Job Creation
Former New York Times columnist William Safire from
time to time told this chestnut from the early 1950s about Princess Margaret
and the matchmaker: A Jewish matchmaker
had the idea of matching up poor Sammy-a nebbish and a schlemiel–with Princess
Margaret then the world’s most eligible woman. Sammy’s mother would not hear of
it: the Princess could not cook and was not Jewish. After weeks of persuading,
with the matchmaker showing how the alliance with British royalty would help
Israel, the mother gave her grudging approval. The matchmaker heaved a sigh of
relief and said, "Now for the hard part".
What the Work-Based Reality Shows Teach Us About Craft, Calling and the California Economy
The work-based reality shows, including Cake Boss, Pickers, Pimp My Ride, and America’s Next Top Model
have much to teach us about craft, calling and California’s economy. The
workers in these shows are not the "knowledge workers" we hear so much about.
They are the bakery workers, car shop workers, restaurant workers and small
businesspeople who will be prevalent in California’s employment future. They
bring innovation, care for detail, and a
service ethos to their jobs.
Buddy Velasco
is the Cake Boss. As viewers of his reality show on TLC network know,
Buddy runs a bakery in Hoboken New Jersey. The bakery, Carlo’s Bake Shop has a baking and sales crew of nearly 30,
including Buddy’s mother, four sisters and three brothers-in-law
Jobs with the Most Projected Openings in California
The state Employment Development Department (EDD) periodically issues 10-year projections of fastest growing occupations in California and occupations with highest number of job openings. The most recent projections show some of the “knowledge” jobs among the fastest growing jobs in California. But the jobs with the greatest job openings remain the low tech, largely unglamorous jobs as personal and home aides, customer service representatives, waiters and waitresses, and retail salespersons.
Below is the chart of the 10 fastest growing occupations in California. Though issued in 2010, the projections cover the period 2008-2018.
The Relevancy of the California Conservation Corps For 2011
The California Conservation Corps (CCC) will be 35 years old
this year. It is going strong and in fact is poised to expand. Its experience
is most relevant to a debate in California workforce circles today: what are
the needed job skills in the emerging California economy, and how young
Californians can best achieve these skills.
The Corps was founded by Jerry Brown in July 1976, who
described it as "a combination Jesuit seminary, Israeli kibbutz and Marine
Corps boot camp." It sought to bring together California youth of various
backgrounds, income levels and races. The youth would be placed in residential
settings, outside of urban areas, and put to work on conservation tasks that were
real work: fire containment, trail construction, stream restoration, tree
planting. In this work, the youth would contribute to the California community,
and also develop the skills to navigate in the job world and in life.
What California Employment Will Look Like in 2011–With Help from Gladys and the Pips
Based on the job numbers we’ve seen over the past nine months, I would agree with recent projections coming from our California-based economists that unemployment in California will continue to be above 10.5% throughout 2011 (higher throughout most of the year). However, there are four employment dynamics that may impact the pace of recovery, and that we need to keep an eye on.
The UCLA Anderson School in December projected that unemployment will go down slowly in 2011 from the current 12.4% only to 10.9% by the end of 2011. Anderson economists also projected that the state would gain a net of 183,000 jobs. Chapman University economists in December projected that the state would gain a net 167,000 jobs and that the California unemployment rate would remain above 10%.
These projections are consistent with the no-significant-hiring trend we’ve seen in California in 2010. The most recent monthly state job numbers, released on December 17,2010, showed a very modest net 1600 jobs, with a number of the major job sectors (trade, transportation and utilities; financial services; manufacturing) registering net job losses.
High Speed Rail, the Central Valley and the Growth of a Region’s Economy
The California High Speed Rail Authority this past week approved moving forward on the first segment of final design and construction, a $4.15 billion 65 mile segment from the Central Valley town of Corcoran to Madera, with stations to be built in Fresno and Hanford.
Despite the criticisms of building a Train to Nowhere, this was the only segment that made sense in terms of the requirements accompanying the federal funds and in terms of the community support and community investment in the Central Valley. Further, there is no question that the Valley should be focus of the next funds: completing the Merced to Fresno segment and Fresno to Bakersfield segment.
California Employment, After the Great Recession
Though the job recovery in California will be a multi-year process, it is not too early to start thinking of what the job world will look like in California after the Great Recession. In this posting, I’d like to start by addressing the structure of jobs we are likely to see in California. In future postings I will address the likely impacts of the Great Recession on other dynamics of California jobs, including our job creation/destruction, movement among jobs, and breakdown of the traditional employer-employee relation.
Over the past 20 years in California we have had numerous ups and downs in our unemployment rate, and three major recessions. Yet, the industry structure has not changed dramatically. In 1990, California had a highly diverse economy, and it continues to have such an economy today. New employment sub-sectors will expand, such as alternative energy, energy conservation, and forms of information technology. But the great majority of jobs will continue to be spread among the 11 sectors that have formed the basis of California employment.