California will suffer a more severe recession than the rest of the U.S. economy according to a report issued by the Milken Institute. The report, The Economic Outlook for the United States and California, Slow Growth or Recession?, by Ross DeVol, director of regional economics at the Milken Institute with assistance from Armen Bedroussian, summed up its analysis this way: "If the U.S economy has the sniffles, California’s economy has a full-blown cold-with all the associated aches and pains."
However, DeVol points out the recession will be mild by historical standards.
The report says California’s economy will be hit harder by the housing market correction, depressed consumer spending, and slowing imports. Also, California’s economy, especially in the L.A. area still feels the effects of the Hollywood writers’ strike. The report claims that California will face a net job loss in 2008 with the unemployment rating hitting 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter.
Things appear a bit brighter for 2009. According to the Milken study, housing markets will bottom out, exports will grow, business investment will expand and job growth will bounce back into positive numbers wiping out the job losses of 2008 and then some.
So hang in there. The sun will come up again. To view the full report from the Milken Institute click here.