Will Garamendi Hold On in CD-10?

Judy Lloyd
President of Altamont Strategies

Today
is "Game On" for the Primary in Congressional District 10 where 14 candidates
vie to be our next Member of Congress. 
This is the "old" Bill Baker seat – once Republican – where Democrats
now hold a startling 18-point registration advantage.

All
candidates run off against one another today.  The top vote getters of each party run
off on November 3rd if no candidate gets 50% +1.

On
the Democrat side, it could be a "toss up" if primary turnout is below the
predicted 35% to 38%.  If turnout
is high, Gov. Schwarzenegger will have the opportunity to appoint a new
Lieutenant Governor.

Lt. Governor John
Garamendi (D)
– Garamendi has enjoyed exceptionally good fundraising, coupled with endorsements
by Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and the Contra
Costa Times
.  He is the one
candidate with both federal credentials from his tenure in Washington and state
credentials through running for most every office in California.  Only problem is – Garamendi doesn’t
live here and this has become the issue of the campaign.  Still, Garamendi has boasted a 10-point
lead for most of the last 2 weeks. 
Many insiders in Contra Costa County think he could get beat by "favorite
son" Senator Mark DeSaulnier, who has wrapped himself around nationalized
health care (polling well in the 10th district, according to inside
tracking polls).

State Senator Mark
DeSaulnier (D) –
Contra Costa’s home town boy has done some hilarious mailers and
television spots – my favorite was today where a late-day email quoted
Garamendi stating – "I can see the 10th District from my house!"
(parody of Saturday Night Live’s Tina
Fey as Sarah Palin).  Whether he
wins or loses, DeSaulnier has given the district a memorable campaign – with a
good chuckle!  Don’t count him out.

State Assemblywoman Joan
Buchanan (D) –
As of tonight, the Assemblywoman has put a startling $850,000 into her
campaign.  This is second to the
personal funding Ellen Tauscher assembled to win the seat against Baker – and
more than what Robert Rao spent of his own money in the 2008 15th
Assembly District primary in the same neighborhood.  Today tells whether Buchanan will turn out her base of
women (Survey USA says that both Garamendi and DeSaulnier are beating her among
women currently but the numbers are closing).  Today’s vote will decide if Buchanan will be a Member of
Congress, run for State Senate if DeSaulnier wins in CD-10, or run for State Assembly
again against 2008 challenger San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson.

Anthony Woods (D) – You’ve got to give
Woods a lot of credit for raising a ton of money, becoming a national media
personality, and running one of the better name recognition campaigns from the
many signs I have seen in the Fairfield/Solano County part of the district.  This guy is a future star of the
Democrat party.  Our household has
received his mailers – and they are impressive.  Rumor has it that he had a lot of fun at the last candidate
debate in Livermore.

Dave Harmer (R) – On the Republican side,
Dave Harmer will be a clear winner and I wouldn’t doubt it if he defied
expectations and came in stronger than expected.  (Survey USA says he is running 2nd in the primary
field with 20%).  Harmer has run an
outstanding campaign and is absolutely ready for Washington if he can defy the
odds on November 3rd
While Harmer lacks name ID and the strong fundraising of the top
Democrats, his secret to ballot numbers could be his appeal on extremely well
attended tele-town-halls that will get him extra votes.


All others are going to post single digits or fractions thereof.

 

I
voted – you should too if you live in Congressional District 10.

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