The late, great New York Times columnist William Safire made a habit of writing a year-end column he called Office Pool. In it, Safire offered, multiple-choice style, a series of possible news events that could take place in the year ahead. At the column’s end, he let you know which ones he thought actually would occur.

Safire’s focus was Washington, though he delved into culture and sports too. Here we do California Office Pool, for the second year. My picks are at the end. (Last year, I picked the Ron George resignation but got very little else right). Be sure to make your predictions, and clip n’ save (or bookmark and save) so we can see how we did at the end of 2010.

1. At the end of 2011, Gov. Jerry Brown’s chief of staff will be:

A. Anne Gust Brown, unofficially with no one holding the title
B. Anne Gust Brown, officially
C. Jim Humes
D. Gray Davis
E. Susan Kennedy
F. Gavin Newsom
G. Tom Quinn

2. The biggest California political story of 2011 will be:

A. A personal scandal that takes down one of the down-ticket executive officers.
B. A massive earthquake or other natural disaster that temporarily ends partisan bickering and leads to the federal government sending billions in relief money, some of which can be quietly used to help balance the state’s books.
C. A big political fight between Gov.-elect Jerry Brown and Democratic legislative leaders, who chafe at Brown’s reluctance to raise taxes and argue his budget solutions are just like Schwarzenegger’s, only worse
D. Bankruptcy filings by several California cities.
E. A string of high-profile crime by prisoners released on the order of the federal courts.

3. The number of Schwarzenegger cabinet secretaries who will still be in place on Dec. 31, 2011 will be:

A. 0
B. 1
C. 2-3
D. 4 or more

4. In a mid-year special election, California voters will go to the polls and…

A. Approve a Jerry Brown-backed measure to raise taxes to preserve certain school spending.
B. Reject Jerry Brown-back measures on the budget, plunge the state into a deeper budget crisis.
C. Choose between competing budget proposals from legislative Democrats and Republicans – and choose the Republican alternative.
D. Devolve more tax and spending power to local governments.

5. The number of undeniably upbeat columns Dan Walters will write in 2011

A. 0
B 1-5
C. 6-10
D. 10 or greater

6. The happy surprise of the year in the state Capitol will happen when:

A. an economic surge produces $5 billion in additional funds for the government
B. Linda Ronstadt shows up to give an impromptu, free concert on the West steps.
C. The redistricting commission produces new districts that look very much like the ones we have now, protecting incumbents of both parties.

7. The Academy Award for best picture will go to:

A. Disney’s “Toy Story 3,” a towering indictment of liberal toys who are really authoritarians
B. “The Social Network,” a towering indictment of the evil done by anti-social Harvard guys who work in California.
C. “The King’s Speech,” a towering indictment of places that allow themselves to be ruled by those with strange accents and speech patterns
D. “Inception,” a dreamy contemplation that offers the possibility that the California budget deficit may be merely a figment of our collective subconscience.

8. The California pro sports team to win a championship in 2011 will be:

A. The young, pitching-rich Oakland A’s, who catch fire and keep the World Series championship in the Bay Area.
B. The Lakers, who beat back LeBron James and the Miami Heat to win their third title
C. Hockey’s San Jose Sharks, who bring the Stanley Cup home to the Silicon Valley.
D. The San Diego Chargers, who ride an improbable winning streak all the way to the Super Bowl.

9. By the end of 2011, the California unemployment rate will have

A. surged back above 13 percent, as a double-dip national recession and more government cuts take hold.
B. held steady around 12, as coastal California roars back to life while the inland despairs.
C. declined to 10 percent or lower, driven by a resurgence in manufacturing and home sales.

10. In a shocking post-gubernatorial move, Arnold Schwarzenegger will

A. Stop giving interviews, avoid the media, and spend most of the year taking his sons to sporting events.
B. Be hired by the European Union as a consultant on how to save countries with unsustainable budget deficits.
C. take some time off to attend art school to pursue a new career as a painter
D. star in a reality TV show, “Arnold for President,” in which he gives speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire as though he were a presidential candidate, speaking uncomfortable truths that won’t get mentioned by partisans of both parties.

 

MY ANSWERS: 1. C (Jim Humes). 2. A tie, both A and C (scandal down ticket, and a Brown-legislature fight). 3. C (2-3 Schwarzenegger cabinet secretaries remain). 4. A (approving a tax for schools). 5. B. (Between 1 and 5 upbeat Dan Walters columns). 6. C (redistricting status quo). 7. C (The King’s Speech wins best picture). 8. C (Sharks win the Cup) 9. B. (unemployment stays at 12) 10. D (“Arnold for President”)