Either the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is going to be hailed as the Nostradamus of all polls or it will be ridiculed after the national election results are in. The USC/Times poll has been an outlier during this election season, as of Monday showing Donald Trump 6-points ahead of Hillary Clinton. Even the Times political reporters put together an electoral map on the election giving Clinton a healthy Electoral College victory.
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Gov. Jerry Brown was on TV more in his effort to defeat Prop 53 than he was in his last two gubernatorial campaigns…at least it seems that way, and probably is true.
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My fearless prediction that I made at the Valley Industry and Commerce Association political panel a few weeks ago—and I’ll stick to it—at the end of this torturous campaign we will end up with the status quo on the federal level: A Democrat in the White House and a Republican Congress. I think there will be ticket splitting. For those who don’t like Hillary Clinton and like Donald Trump even less, they will put Clinton in the White House and vote for Republicans as a check on her.
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I’ll estimate two days before we start seeing articles on the 2018 governor’s race.
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Turnout, it’s all about turnout. One question examined by a study promoted by UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business on polls is do voters who say they will show up to vote actually do so. If voting mirrors the dramatic increased registration gains recently reported and those voters follow the pattern predicted for many of those new voters, especially Latinos and millennials, to borrow from an old automobile add—this is not your father’s California anymore. Check out Paul Mitchell’s column in Capitol Weekly.
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A realtor in my neighborhood sent around a business flyer about two months ago with pictures of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on the card. Above the pictures was inscribed the following message: If You Plan to Move to Canada We Can Sell Your House for You!
Be curious to find out if his business picks up tomorrow.