So many Democrats running for governor, you’ll soon near a scorecard to keep them straight. Is there room for a Republican in the governor’s race in Deep Blue California?
This weekend’s state Democratic convention saw what might be called a thickening of the field for governor with speculation that rich environmentalist Tom Steyer might jump into the race and a campaign-like video circulated produced for Senate president Kevin de León. In this heavily Democratic state should we care what’s going on with Republicans interested in the corner office?
Many argue that in this blue state only a Democrat can be elected. In fact, under California’s top two primary system, it is possible two Democrats will square off for governor in the 2018 final. But that top-two system is unpredictable. Especially with such a thick field of Democratic candidates, a solid Republican candidate likely would be in the run-off.
Republican insiders are still hoping San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer will make the run. He is feeling the pressure. Faulconer’s record on the environment and immigration will make him acceptable to some Democrats, especially those concerned with economic matters. The 2018 election could fall at a time of that economic slide Gov. Jerry Brown has been warning us about for years. In that case, Democrats’ prolific need for taxes and spending would be held against them. Other issues any Republican will exploit are rising crime and more educational choice.
For Faulconer to take the gamble of butting heads with an expected Democratic surge to express negative feelings about the Trump Administration is a big step. More importantly, will Republican donors provide adequate support for him? Republican big wallets have yet to be convinced that a member of the GOP can win the governorship. But economic circumstances and over-reach by the far leftward march of the Democrats in California could bring about a recalculation.
Massachusetts will be used as an example. That deeply blue state frequently elects Republican governors to keep an eye on a supermajority Democratic legislature—a role that Jerry Brown has filled here in California.
Speaking of Republican donors, rumors have it that GOP mega-donor Charles Munger Jr. is encouraging the declared interest in the top job by former Assemblyman David Hadley. The former one-term assembly member from Los Angeles’ South Bay would stand as a moderate candidate who said he did not support Donald Trump. Hadley’s lack of name-ID means he would need a lot of Munger money to become known statewide.
On the other side of the GOP political scale is another former assemblyman and one-time gubernatorial candidate, Tim Donnelly. Currently on a book tour promoting his book, Patriot Not Politician, Donnelly’s hope would be to pull an election surprise like Trump, whom he supported.
Yesterday on this site, Scott Lay suggested that former San Diego city councilman Carl DeMaio may be using his position in leading a recall effort against a tax-raising Democratic state senator as a stalking horse for a gubernatorial run.
Announced candidate John Cox, a successful businessman, has resources to kick-start his campaign. However, Cox’s approach to the gubernatorial race is based on a plan which would change the nature of governing in the Golden State.
He wants to eliminate big money from state political campaigns by creating 12,000 small electoral districts, which would require retail politics for candidates going door-to-door to seek support. The 12,000 legislators would send 120 of their number to Sacramento to work out policy measures that would have to be confirmed by the entire elected body. Despite the increase in elected officials, an analysis of the plan by the Department of Finance and Legislative Analyst finds that spending on the legislature would be reduced $100 million a year.
Cox has filed an initiative that contains his plan and he says the polling is very positive. The proposal would have crossover appeal to the contingent of Democratic delegates at this weekend’s convention who argue for reduced political spending. If the measure qualifies, Cox would have a platform for his campaign. He already has a fundraising letter out in support of his gubernatorial run.
As discussed earlier, any GOP hopes rest with donor perception of the race. That puts the business community in the spotlight. Will the business community as a whole come to the aide of a Republican who might pull an upset or will that community choose a Democrat they believe they can work with?
There is one more option for the business community, which I have written about before. Business could involve itself in the primary election not to support a candidate but to try to knock out any candidate they believe would be anti-business.
With Democratic activists pushing potential gubernatorial candidates further and further to the left, this strategy might have many targets to contemplate.