After the results of the mid-term elections California’s delegation of 53 will now have 45 Democrats in the new ruling party which will acquire in toto at least a 241-seat majority depending upon the outcome of a few races still to be decided.
If San Francisco’s Nancy Pelosi is to regain the House speakership—as projected—and the Democrats become once again the majority party she will need 218 votes.
Over 20% of them will likely have been provided by California Democrats.
Some of the newly-elected members are showing early signs of rebellion against her leadership, including Rep. Linda Sanchez from Orange County. Sanchez was the loser in the 2016 U.S. Senate race to Sen. Kamala Harris who Pelosi supported.
As of the latest count 16 votes would be enough to deny Pelosi the Speakership, and although a letter with 20 names of those opposing her is in circulation, no would-be adversary has yet to come forward publicly.
Pelosi was the nation’s only woman Speaker and this will be her second turn and the first for anyone who was ever reelected to the post.
With GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield named the new Minority Leader, if Pelosi is again at the helm it is not stretching the truth to say that the future of the nation’s governance will lie partly in the hands of two Californians.
Naturally this depends not just on how well these two leaders can do business with one another, but to what extent they are willing to and can bring their combined clout to bear on a president whose intractability is unchallenged.
McCarthy, however, has been one of Trump’s staunchest backers and a new era of cooperation is not likely to break out unless there is significant political gain to be had on both sides.
Of course Democrats will have enough votes by themselves to approve any legislation even if there is resistance.
But Pelosi will have to bring discipline to a new generation of members eager to flex their muscles who have little loyalty to the party’s elders or to what they see as failed policies.
Pelosi has weathered tough battles before and has managed to keep her troops in line through a combination of uncommon skill, adept decision-making, incomparable fund-raising prowess and outright toughness.
Furthermore, there is no obvious individual in her party who has enough support to replace her and the Democrats would do well to avoid a nasty leadership battle having just regained power and the opportunity to make a difference.
Even if some measure of House harmony can be restored, the Senate with a pick-up of at least 2 or 3 seats is even more firmly in Republican control and the Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, has shown absolutely no signs of willingness to buck an autocratic president.
Trump has made it clear that, even if Pelosi extends an olive branch he has little taste for conflict resolution if it ever crosses his mind and even less interest in brokering compromises between the two parties.
With the 2020 elections now looming, Special Prosecutor, Robert Mueller’s investigation entering what may be a fateful wrap-up phase and the newly empowered Democrat-led House threatening even wider inquiries, the forces working against compromise may be insurmountable.
This will put great pressure on Pelosi and the House leadership to impose some restraints on the rank-and-file which may not sit well with members who ran against everything Trump stands for and welcome the fight.
With no leader having yet emerged to replace Barack Obama and with the failure of the Clinton candidacy, in addition to her other duties, Pelosi will have to assume the role as chief spokesperson and the most prominent face of her party.
Though she will have command of the pulpit, the field of 2020 wanabees is growing by the day and there is the danger that their collective voices could drown out a clear, uniform and convincing message that the party must pound out if it is going to persuade millions of skeptical voters back to the fold who opted for Trump or just stayed home.
This is a herculean task that will be further complicated by the leftward lurch which many Californians and kindred spirits in other regions took in the recent elections in contrast to the unshakeable commitment to Trump that persists elsewhere.
Paradoxically, California’s surging blue tide which saw almost every GOP incumbent go down to defeat even in redoubtable conservative strongholds occurred not because of but despite Pelosi who is the bete noire of Republicans.
If she was a liability in numerous races across the country though not on the ballot where Democrats were not expected to but won, it did not show up.
The message in California and everywhere else the GOP experienced losses is clear: Another person who was not on the ticket—Donald Trump—may have made the difference.
Pelosi has already passed the test with flying colors which is why she should be the next Speaker.
The final test of Trump’s survivability will be in two years or it could be sooner.
California’s politics are by no means the nation’s role model. But in the corridors of official Washington, its presence is inescapable.
Along with its star players in the House and Senate, another rising Democrat, Governor-Elect, Gavin Newsom, is now poised to take center-stage.
The battle cry of the Golden State may be: “Look out, Donald Trump. We are coming for you.”