The new PPIC poll numbers on the Senate race have Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore in full spin mode as they try to explain why it’s a really good thing to be running second and third in a three-person race.
The survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found Tom Campbell, the newcomer to the Senate race, with 27 percent support, followed by Fiorina at 16 percent and DeVore at 8 percent.
Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer beat each of the Republicans in head-to-head match-ups, leading by four percentage points against Campbell and eight over both Fiorina and DeVore.
But those numbers mean very different things to the different candidates.
Campbell’s people say both the PPIC poll and the Field Poll last week pretty much confirm their internal polling, which they say shows the former San Jose congressman leading by an even larger margin.
It’s Fiorina and DeVore, however, who really torture the numbers.
Not surprisingly, Fiorina’s release on the results doesn’t mention that she’s now running second in a race she led until Campbell moved over from the governor’s race.
The poll “confirms yet again that Barbara Boxer is a highly vulnerable candidate,” said a statement from the campaign. “As voters get to know Carly better in the coming months, her name identification will rise, as will her poll numbers.”
And what about Campbell’s instant lead in race he entered just a couple of weeks back?
“Tom Campbell’s performance in both the primary and general election match-ups shows his electoral weakness, despite the higher name recognition that comes from having run for office nine times before,” the release continues.
That’s one way of looking at it. Still, Campbell’s “electoral weakness” has him leading Fiorina in the primary and performing better against Boxer in the general. And while he’s run those nine campaigns, he’s won seven of them.
To listen to the take of Team DeVore, however, his 8 percent support means he has Campbell and Fiorina right where he wants them.
“As Chuck DeVore’s support steadily grows, Carly Fiorina’s is steadily collapsing,” argued Joshua Trevino, DeVore’s communications director. “With the margin of error on the PPIC poll and the identical … general election match-ups, Fiorina and DeVore are in a de facto tie for second place.
Nice try, but, ah, no.
First the margin of error on the poll’s survey of 425 likely Republican voters is plus or minus five percentage points and Fiorina is eight percentage points ahead of DeVore. As for the DeVore’s growing support, an October Field Poll had him at 20 percent, a number that skidded to 6 percent in the January poll, when Campbell was added to the race.
Of course poll numbers this far before an election don’t say a thing about who’s going to win in June or November. The PPIC poll shows that the real leader in the GOP Senate primary is “Don’t Know,” with 48 percent of the likely voters still undecided.
Fiorina says those numbers will move in her favor once voters learn the truth about Campbell and DeVore, and she’s got $2.5 million of her own money in the campaign to put that message out.
DeVore is confident that conservative Tea Party voters, sparked by Scott Brown’s upset victory in the Massachusetts’ Senate race this month, will reject the more moderate Fiorina and Campbell and propel him to victory, while Campbell believes his experience and financial expertise will find favor with voters.
And regardless of what the polls might say in January, any of them could turn out to be right.
John Wildermuth is a longtime writer on California politics.