Election Prediction Record Not Bad—What Do Results Mean?

Joel Fox
Editor of Fox & Hounds and President of the Small Business Action Committee

How’d I do with my Election Day predictions? Not bad. Would I be writing a follow-up article if I had a miserable night gazing into the crystal ball? Here are the predictions and results with a look at what these results might mean:

Presidential Race

As I predicted, Hillary Clinton won by the more than the 2-percentage point margin she had in most polls. Trump secured 75% of the Republican vote, the exact number I cited. That means there was a strong protest vote against him, as I expected. He was undoubtedly below 75% for all Republican voters. The 75% figure reflected those Republicans who voted for president. I imagine a number of Republican voters skipped the presidential vote.

What it Means: Obviously, Hillary Clinton doesn’t have to put one foot in California for the next five months—California and its electoral votes are already in her pocket.

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The Little Train That Couldn’t: CA’s High Speed Rail

Kerry Jackson is a Fellow at the California Center for Reform at the Pacific Research Institute.

California’s high-speed rail project has fallen into a ditch due to yet another delay. Now would be a good time to put a bullet in this bullet-train scheme before even more billions of taxpayers’ dollars are wasted.

The California High-Speed Rail Authority denies there’s a holdup. Maybe it’s just a matter of semantics. What critics are calling a delay is considered by supporters to merely be a four-year extension of the deadline to 2022 to complete the 119-mile Central Valley span, thanks to an amendment to the project contract approved by the Obama administration.

But no matter how the facts are interpreted, multiple delays have sidetracked the project in the last seven years.

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What It Means to Be ‘California’s Bank’

Joe Mathews
Connecting California Columnist and Editor, Zócalo Public Square, Fellow at the Center for Social Cohesion at Arizona State University and co-author of California Crackup: How Reform Broke the Golden State and How We Can Fix It (UC Press, 2010)

If California were a bank, what sort of bank would it be?

Banc of California has a new and intriguing answer to that question: In just six years, “California’s bank,” as it calls itself, has emerged as one of America’s fastest-growing banks—from $700 million in assets when it recapitalized the old First PacTrust Bancorp. in 2010 to nearly $10 billion and approximately 100 locations statewide today. Since the end of 2014, it’s been the best performing bank stock in the country. And it has grown while pursuing a banking strategy even Bernie Sanders might love: serving the state’s diverse array of small and mid-sized businesses.

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California Awarded Top Honors for Job Creation and Economic Development

Fox and Hounds Daily Editors
 

(Editor’s note: The following press release was issued by the California Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz))

California Awarded Top Honors for Job Creation and Economic Development
Area Development Magazine Awards GO-Biz and California First-Ever Gold Shovel Award

Sacramento Calif. – Further bolstering California’s position as the national leader in job creation, the Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz) today announced that Area DevelopmentMagazine has awarded California its first-ever Gold Shovel Award for excellence in economic development and job creation.

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Looking Ahead to 2018, a Lesson for the GOP in U.S. Senate Race

Joel Fox
Editor of Fox & Hounds and President of the Small Business Action Committee

Under the top two primary, for the first time a major statewide contest will have two members of the same party squaring off in the General Election. This circumstance could be repeated a number of times in coming statewide elections.

Attorney General Kamala Harris romped to victory in the 34-candidate senate primary field with 40.4% of the vote. Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez grabbed the second spot and the right to face Harris in November taking 18.5% of the vote.

The next four finishers in the field were all Republicans.

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Winners and Losers in California’s June Elections

Joe Mathews
Connecting California Columnist and Editor, Zócalo Public Square, Fellow at the Center for Social Cohesion at Arizona State University and co-author of California Crackup: How Reform Broke the Golden State and How We Can Fix It (UC Press, 2010)

WINNERS

  1. The Clintons

California still loves them. In early return, Hillary Clinton was leading by a far bigger margin that polls showed.

  1. Moderate Democrats

Voters went with the recommendation of the moderate (and fiscally conservative) Gov. Brown in backing the more moderate Hillary Clinton. Loretta Sanchez appeared to be making it into the top two in the Senate race. And moderate Democratic legislators ran strong in early returns.

  1. The San Diego legal community

Trump’s racist attack on U.S. District Judge Gonzalo Curiel was brilliantly countered by San Diego lawyers who know the judge well. The San Diego legal community looked very good in its moment in the national spotlight. In a way, the judge and other San Diego lawyers, in less than two weeks, did more damage to Trump than 16 Republican candidates and all their consultants and handlers managed in over a year.

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Legislative Halftime: NFIB California Announces Updated Priorities

Tom Scott
CA Executive Director, National Federation of Independent Business

Following the legislative house of origin deadline last week, National Federation of Independent Business/California reflected on our victories and challenges ahead per our “The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly” bill list. Each year we proactively identify which bills will have the greatest impact, either negative or positive, to our 22,000 small businesses across California. Throughout the year we advocate in the Capitol for these priorities in order to lower the burden and cost of doing business in this state.

It is now halftime in the Legislature, and with that comes some welcome victories for small business, but more importantly there remain significant challenges ahead in these final months of this legislative session. Among our victories, we were proud to help stop a handful of ugly bills thus far, some of which included the following:

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Luxury Urban Housing, Built on a Myth, Is About to Take a Big Hit

Fox&Hounds Contributor

From steamy Miami to the thriving cores of cities from New York, San Francisco, Houston and Chicago, swank towers, some of them pencil thin and all richly appointed. This surge in the luxury apartment construction has often been seen as validation of the purported massive shift of population, notably of the retired wealthy, to the inner cities. Indeed with the exception of a brief period right after the Great Recession, there was slightly greater growth in core cities than the suburbs and exurbs. It was said that we were in the midst of a massive “return to the city.”

Yet in reality the movement to the inner core has been much less spectacular than that. Indeed by 2014, growth once again was faster not only in traditional suburbs but also in the exurban areas that were broadly predicted to be the most doomed. At the same time, the fastest city growth, notes economist Jed Kolko, occurred largely in the most “suburbanized” cities, like Phoenix, San Antonio, and San Diego.

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Networks Calling Election Winners Tonight—Not So Fast

Tony Quinn
Political Analyst

Now comes California, the Big Enchilada.  No more teeny tiny states picking presidents; it’s our turn.  More than eight million ballots will be cast, but unlike almost every other state, millions of these ballots will not be counted on Election Night.

California’s massive electorate votes in stages.  Voting by mail has become so popular that more than 60 percent of the ballots cast in 2014 were Vote-By-Mail.  That will probably be the case in the 2016 primary.

Political Data Inc. follows the Vote-By-Mail balloting from the first day ballots began arriving at the counties.  As of Monday afternoon, some 2.8 million ballots had been received and catalogued by the counties, and most have been counted.  This is the early vote and will be the first results released on Election Night. 

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Election Day: Questions, What to Look For and a Few Predictions

Joel Fox
Editor of Fox & Hounds and President of the Small Business Action Committee

Election primary day is finally here in California. Watching much of the rest of the country’s voters engage in the process of choosing presidential nominees is little more than a spectator sport for Californians. While the choices of whom to vote for have been limited by those other states’ voters, Californians now will get a chance to speak through the ballot. Other important races will be decided, as well, and analysts will be looking for trends that could indicate how November campaigns turn out.

A few items to think about and a look into a cloudy and cracked crystal ball:

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