I have previously posted two articles on this site discussing the odds of the Democratic Party being able to achieve a veto-proof “supermajority” in the Senate or Assembly.
This would require the Democrats to gain two new seats in the Senate and six new seats in the Assembly.
Due to the Democrats’ failed attempt at recalling GOP Senator Jeff Denham last June, and no Democrat filing to run against GOP Senator Abel Maldonado – allowing him to run unopposed in November – the chances of Senate Democrats gaining two seats are all but nil.
On the Assembly side, the California Target Book, a non-partisan publication that analyses and handicaps legislative races in this state (which I publish), is tracking six assembly districts that are currently being held by a Republican that are believed to be at the top of the Democratic Target List.
The six districts are: AD’s 10, 15, 26, 37, 78 and 80.
Read my earlier posts for details on all six races, but in three of these Assembly districts, plummeting GOP registration corresponding with a significant increase in voters registering decline-to-state (DTS) has given these independent voters increased clout in determining whether or not the Democrats dream of that super-majority can be realized.
The three assembly districts are AD10, a suburban Sacramento district represented by Alan Nakanishi; AD15, the last remaining GOP-held district in the San Francisco Bay Area represented by Guy Houston; and AD26, a Central Valley district represented by Greg Aghazarian.
All three were first elected in 2002 and are termed out this year.
In the 15th District, when Houston first won this seat in 2002, Republicans held a six point registration advantage (R-44%, D-38, DTS 14%). Current registration figures (5/19/08) now show Democrats with a one point advantage (D-39%, R-38%), while the independent vote (DTS) since ’02 increased by 7 points, standing now at 19%.
In the 26th District, Republicans in 2002 held a two point advantage (R-45%, D-43%, DTS-8%). Now, it is the Democrats who hold a two point advantage (D-42%, R-40%), while DTS increased 6 points to 19%.
In the 10th District, Republicans in 2002 held a 5 point registration advantage (R-45%, D-40%, DTS 12%). The registration advantage is now down to 2 points (R-41%, D-39%), while the DTS went to 17%, a five point increase.
I picked these three districts because, as noted above, they are pivotal for Assembly Democrats to have any chance of picking up that super-majority. But falling GOP registration and huge increase in independent voters are happening statewide. Meaning, the DTS vote will have an impact on the outcome of races at all levels throughout the state.
In 2000, a law was passed to let each state political party determine whether or not to allow DTS voters to vote in their respective Presidential Primary. The Democratic Party made the decision to allow them to participate, the Republican Party made the decision to exclude them.
Republicans must hope these independent voters haven’t taken this action personally, because now they need their vote more than ever.