Public Opinion Strategies just completed our own national poll, surveying 800 likely voters between September 6-8, 2008. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
This piece was primarily written by my Partners Neil Newhouse and Glen Bolger in our Virginia office. I have made some additions to reflect some of my thinking and have included numbers reflective of the Pacific Region of the Country, which, by our definition, is Washington, Oregon and California.
We wanted to share our thoughts on the data and its implications for GOP candidates in the Fall.
Truth be told, we really didn’t see this one coming. While the mood of the country is still in the toilet, and more than 60% of voters still disapprove of the job that W’s doing, John McCain is now leading Barack Obama by three nationally and only behind by 5% in the Pacific region. Before the conventions, the difference between candidates in these three far Western states were in double digits.
Sure, we KNEW this was gonna happen. Right!
But, there’s more…
There is evidence in our data showing that party ID and the “generic ballot” have also improved for the GOP. And, this is the kind of shift that can make a significant difference in down-ticket races. We found the GOP down as a party by four, a whole lot better than the eight-to-ten down we have seen all year.
The best way for down ticket GOP candidates to jump on this bandwagon is NOT to immediately wrap themselves around McCain/Palin, but rather, to step up their campaign and continue to aggressively portray the differences between opponents. If there are any coat tails to be ridden, it will happen late, after the last Presidential debate, not now.
It is likely that the selection of Sarah Palin helped. She’s the party’s new “rock star,” and the GOP has fallen in love with her (image among GOPers: 84%-6%). Clearly she has brought energy and excitement to the campaign and there’s no question that it has rubbed off on Senator McCain, who obviously is having fun on the stump.
Voters can sense this, and the data shows that they believe McCain is gaining ground in the campaign while Obama is treading water. There is also the old saying about “not counting your chickens before they hatch.” Do not assume that this political bump will last. There is a lot that can and will happen over the next fifty-plus days.
Immediately supporting off-shore drilling and opposing amnesty for illegal aliens, taxes and Democrats’ support for government-run health care all score well. Even in the three western Coastal states, the “off-shore” drilling has support by a margin of 60% to 37%
McCain has done the near impossible. He has overcome the mood of the country, W’s approval scores and the weak economy to make it a dead heat nationally in the Presidential contest and is only behind by 5% in the Pacific region. That’s good news for every Republican, but let’s not put the cart before the horse (we are trying to use every cliché we can think of in this piece).
GOP candidates should not depend on McCain/Palin to pull them through; there’s a lot of time left in this campaign. But Republicans are in a far better position than any of us believed they would be post-Labor Day.