Conventional wisdom has pegged California as a fiscally conservative, socially liberal state. Whether that’s true or not will be measured by the results of a number of statewide ballot measures on November 4.
If Californians are truly fiscally conservative then the bond measures on the November ballot don’t stand a chance. How in heaven’s name can fiscally conservative voters support $16-billion in bonds when the California economy and the national economy are in meltdown mode?
These general obligation bonds have first call on the state treasury. In other words, the bond obligations must be met before a dime is spent on other state functions. So while it is technically true, as every bond ad screams out: THIS PROPOSITION ____ (fill in the blank with Props 1A, 3, or 10) WILL NOT INCREASE TAXES, bonds put pressure on the general fund because they reduce available tax revenue needed for day to day state responsibilities.
Yet, historically statewide bonds pass. Here in supposedly fiscally conservative California, since the March 2000 election, 14 out of 16 state bond measures have passed. I suspect many voters don’t know that bonds draw from the general fund or don’t think about the consequences to other general fund programs when they mark their ballots.
Little money is being spent to oppose the bonds on this year’s ballot. And, the bonds are being marketed in a feel-good manner: Reduce pollution and road congestion with a high speed rail (Prop 1A); hospitals for sick children (Prop 3) and reduce the reliance on expensive gasoline while improving the environment (Prop 10).
And, while this column is dedicated to statewide measures to test conventional wisdom, don’t forget there is an additional $25 billion in local bonds along with local tax increases on many Californians’ ballots.
Both Proposition 4 on parental consent for minors before having an abortion and Proposition 8 to ban gay marriage will test the theory on socially liberal California. Of course, each of these measures has a track record, of sorts. Similar measures to Prop 4 have been defeated in the recent past; and a statutory ban on gay marriage was passed in 2000.
Proposition 8 is a constitutional amendment. According to the recent poll released by the Public Policy Institute of California, Prop 8 is behind 44% to 52%. But the Yes vote in this poll increased over previous PPIC polls on the measure. And, the survey found that, generally, supporters of Prop 8 are more passionate about their position than opponents.
Furthermore, the powerful argument featured in the Yes on Prop 8 ads that schools might teach children about gay marriage is getting traction. While certainly not intending to make a connection to that argument, the surprise million dollar donation by the California Teachers Association to defeat Prop 8 probably helped buttress the charge the Yes side is making.
The PPIC poll shows Proposition 4 ahead by a couple of points 46% to 44%. While, traditionally, a ballot measure under 50% this close to the election is deemed in trouble, proponents are optimistic that this year the result will be different.
What happens to conventional wisdom if the socially conservative measures Prop 4 and Prop 8 pass along with all the bonds? Will California no longer be considered a socially liberal, fiscally conservative state? Are we then socially conservative and fiscally liberal?
Hardly.
Perhaps, California has changed in some ways. New voters may be less fiscally conservative. Passionate voters have been known to swing certain elections. Think of the gun control proposition on the 1982 ballot that brought out one-time voters to defeat the measure.
Results on election day will sort some of this out.
Of course, there is always the possibility that conventional wisdom was never right in the first place. That is frequently the case. After all, when we vote on November 4, the contest for president is not between Hillary Clinton and Rudolph Giuliani.