In earlier posts for Fox and Hounds, I asked the question, "Can Assembly Democrats gain the six seats needed to reach a two-thirds supermajority?"
I then went on to list the six GOP-held assembly districts I and my fellow editors of the California Target Book believed would be the ones most likely targeted by the Democrats to achieve that goal: AD10 (D-Alyson Huber vs. R-Jack Sieglock); AD15 (D-Joan Buchanan vs. R-Abram Wilson); AD26 (D-John Eisenhut vs. R-Bill Berryhill); AD36 (D-Ferial Masry vs. R-Audra Strickland); AD78 (D-Marty Block vs. R-John McCann); AD80 (D-Manuel Perez vs. R-Gary Jeandron.
We also stated that the Democrats would also need to hold on to AD30 that was represented by termed out Democratic Asm. Nicole Parra (D-Fran Florez vs. R-Danny Gilmore).
Our predictions turned out to be quite prophetic, because the Democratic leadership did attempt to achieve that supermajority and they in fact focused on the six GOP-held districts mentioned above.
Along with AD30, the Democrats — and independent expenditure committees supporting their agenda — made a full-court press in four of the districts right from the start, running million dollar plus races in AD10, AD15, AD78 and AD80 and WON all four.
In two of the ADs, the Democrats held back until mid-October before putting several hundred thousand dollars to fund the campaigns of John Eisenhut in AD26 and Ferial Masry in AD37. But it proved to be too little too late, losing both by the same margin of 52% – 48%. They also lost in AD30 by the slim margin of 51% -49%; giving them plus three, but three short of the supermajority.
The other big story of campaign 2008 is the plummeting Republican registration throughout the state, particularly in those districts that have been considered safely Republican since the 2001 gerrymander.
Election results show that in many of the so-called safe Republican districts where the Democratic candidate spent LITTLE OR NO MONEY, the Republican candidate’s winning percentage was in the low fifties and the Democratic opponent’s percentage was in the high forties.
One of the best examples is AD36, where Democrat Linda Jones, an African American, elected school board member and city commissioner under former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan, ran against Republican Palmdale Councilman/LAPD officer Stephen Knight.
Though Jones raised and spent less than $50,000 — barely enough to send out more than one or two mailers — she received 49 percent of the votes in the Los Angeles County portion of the district (Antelope Valley) and 47.5 percent of the vote in the San Bernardino portion of the district (Victorville), winning 48 percent of the vote districtwide. One can only speculate what the outcome might have been if some serious money was spent in support of Jones.
Barack Obama’s strong showing in California was most likely a contributing factor to the weaker showing by many of the Republican candidates, but the drop in GOP registration in these districts is very dramatic.
When the district lines in AD36 were first drawn (gerrymandered) in 2001, voter registration was 45% Republican; 37% Democratic; 13% Decline to State (DTS).
The registration in AD36 now is 39% Republican; 39% Democratic; 17% DTS.
AD36 is no longer a safe district for Republicans and the same can be said of other GOP-held districts, including the two ADs the Democrats targeted this year but narrowly lost: AD26 and AD37.
Let there be no doubt — Assembly Democrats will be looking to achieve that supermajority in November 2010 and should Republican voter registration continue to drop, they will most likely achieve that goal.