Now that Super Bowl Sunday is over (congratulations Pittsburgh Steelers on winning the Super Bowl), I wonder if this will be Super Monday when a deal on the budget is announced. Perhaps it will happen tomorrow, making that Super Tuesday. The betting here indicates that a budget deal will be announced soon.
If there is a deal we’ll learn what’s in it, which will set off screeching sirens from one interest group or another dissatisfied with what was given up to bring folks on the other side to the table. In true Super Bowl betting fashion, we could take odds on how the reactions to a budget deal will play out.
Yes, I know it’s a bit premature since we don’t know what’s in the deal, but betting on anything related to the Super Bowl occurs before the kickoff and we can make some good guesses on budget proposals and reactions to them. If the Las Vegas sports books can lay odds on what song Bruce Springsteen will deliver first in the half time show, Fox & Hounds Daily can open up the books on some pre-budget deal bets.
Will some unions attempt to recall Democrats who vote to restrict work rules in a budget deal as union officials have threatened to do? 4-1, unlikely to happen. We have the recent experience of the recall effort on Jeff Denham, which was a flop. And, strong union supporters represent the strongest union areas of the state. There will be little passion from the rank and file to unseat them.
Will there be a recall of Republicans who vote for tax increase? 8-1, more unlikely to happen. Uncertain anyone will step forward with the resources to carry a recall through to a successful conclusion.
Will a Republican who votes for a tax increase have a challenger from an anti-tax foe in the primary? Even money that will happen in at least one race.
What’s the over and under betting line on how big the tax increase might be? $14 billion sounds like a correct figure from the conversations around the capitol. I think it comes under, personally.
Ironically, Las Vegas sports books call side bets not directly on the outcome of the game, such as who the game’s MVP will thank first, as “proposition” bets. We know a little about “propositions” here in California so we should take some REAL “proposition” bets.
Will the California Teachers Association go ahead with its proposed 1-cent sales tax increase for education? If no sales taxes are part of the budget deal the odds are 2-1 they’ll proceed. If sales taxes are part of the deal the odds fall to 4-1.
If a spending limit is part of the budget deal don’t look for another one to come along, even if the limit in the budget package is not as tough as some would want. If there is no spending limit in the budget package the odds of seeing a spending limit on a coming statewide ballot, 3-1.
A measure to lower the two-thirds vote to pass the budget, 3-1. Lower two thirds to pass taxes, 4-1.
Finally, chances of calling a constitutional convention by initiative to resolve California’s governing mess 30-1; down from 100-1 from five months ago when it was first suggested.
Step up to the window and place your bets.