Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has turned around a number of ballot measure campaigns, turning what looked like defeat into victory. However, he has his work cut out for him to do that again, according to Mark Baldassare, President of the Public Policy Institute of California that issued a new statewide poll on the ballot measures. Most of the measures are trailing, some by double digits.
In the March 2004 election, Schwarzenegger campaigned hard for budget reforms in Propositions 57 and 58, turning measures that were initially polling in the low 30-percent range to victory on Election Day. Similarly, the governor worked to turn around an attempt to ease California’s three-strikes law and helped take the redistricting Proposition 11 to victory.
However, Baldassare says the political climate is different in 2009 than it was in 2004 when Props 57 and 58 passed. For one thing, he noted the governor’s approval rating was around 60% in 2004 compared to 34% in the most recent poll. Similarly, the legislature was not being roasted with numbers in the low teens as they are today.
Baldassare also noted during the Proposition 11 campaign that there were more undecided voters as the election approached. He said about one-quarter of the electorate had not made up its mind heading into the election. It is about half that number today.
The PPIC poll measured great dissatisfaction amongst the voters with state government. Baldassare called it a low point in trusting government. Voters don’t trust state elected officials to do the right thing. The poll revealed much greater satisfaction with the federal government’s direction. Baldassare attributed the difference in attitude about the state and federal government to the people’s sense that the federal government was trying to do something about the economic woes that have hit the country. He said it is not clear to voters what the state is trying to do to improve the budget situation.
Yet, with all the difficulty the governor faces in turning around the poll numbers, Baldassare said that it could happen. “The big unknown is the amount of money the Yes campaign is spending.”
You can read the PPIC poll results here.