The governor issues two budget proposals today, one suggesting how he plans to fill the budget hole if the special election ballot measures pass, the other showing how he’ll fill the bigger hole if they fail.
Either way, whether the budget is 15 billion dollars out-of-whack or 21 billion, cuts will happen.
Arguing that many of the suggested cuts are scare tactics, some have referred to similar tactics employed in the past, especially during the famous California tax revolt of 1978. Few of the threatened cuts at that time came to pass. One big difference from then to now is that in 1978 the state was sitting on a 40% state budget surplus. Now there is a about a 40% state budget deficit.
So there will be cuts. The focus now is how they will be employed. Many cuts should be made and have been needed for a long time. Agency consolidation, unnecessary commissions and sale of excess property have been argued over for years and will be the first on the agenda. But that will not be enough, and cuts will come to local governments and schools and other mainline services.
With the schools, will the initial cuts fall on the teachers, who are always mentioned first, or administrators, who are rarely mentioned at all?
Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa gave a hint yesterday where any government will have to look for cuts. At a news conference, he explained that he would call a fiscal emergency for the city allowing him to lay off some city employees and furlough others. State personnel will also feel the sting of reduced revenue.
The fight for more revenue will not go away if the ballot measures are rejected. While taxes will be nearly impossible to pass in the legislature, there will be calls for targeted taxes, and there certainly will be efforts to pass fees with a simple majority vote. However, if the voters reject taxes they will view fees as the same thing and will not be interested.
The one certainty with the ballooning deficit is that cuts are coming.