Most candidates aren’t answering detailed questions about their plans for the state. So it’s still way too early to tell who would be the best candidate to take over as California governor in 2011.
But there’s a case to be made that Tom Campbell might be the best governor the state could have right now.
Whatever his other faults and virtues, Campbell’s credible budget proposal comes closer than anything else I’ve seen to resolving the problem.
Consider, for purposes of comparison, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s approach on the budget. He’s essentially offering a package of super-scary cuts that, by evidence of his previous public statements in favor of the targeted programs, he himself doesn’t support. The governor said before the special election that the laws of mathematics made it impossible to balance the budget without tax increases.
He was right about the math then, and would be right now, except that he’s switched and declared that the public has taken tax increases off the table. This isn’t true—the public messages from the special election results were contradictory and thus incoherent. But the governor, at least for now, has a package of big cuts and borrowing on the table.
Compare Schwarzenegger’s proposal to what Campbell has suggested. Campbell, on his web site, says he agrees with $12.65 billion of the more than $15 billion in cuts in the May revised budget Schwarzenegger offered before the special election. His cuts, like Schwarzenegger’s, would produce real pain. I strongly suspect though, if he were governor, Campbell would seek to reach this number through across-the-board cuts in state programs. Campbell has a history of favoring this approach.
I’ve criticized across-the-board cuts in the past as mindless. But the current situation is different. There is so much public anger and cynicism about the legislative process that across-the-board cuts are the only approach with any chance of being accepted by the public. For cuts to win support, everyone must be hurt, and no one can be protected.
Campbell also has proposed a 32-cent, one-year increase in the gasoline tax, which he projects would produce almost another $6 billion. The drawback of this tax increase is that it would be one-year money. (I’d also like to see higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol, so that the gas tax hike can be a little smaller). But at least Campbell — unlike Republican legislators (save Abel Maldonado), the governor and many Democrats — is acknowledging the obvious: that revenue increases have to be part of the solution.
Finally, Campbell proposes a 15 percent salary give-back from all state employees. Politically, good luck. Campbell says he’d impose furloughs to get the same savings if unions don’t agree. The value of this change? $2.7 billion, he estimates. Such a demand would produce a huge war. And public employees, who are far more skilled and valuable than the public understands, deserve better. But given the times, it’s not an outlandish demand. And it would be attached to a credible plan to balance the budget.
That gets you to $21 billion in solutions, about the size of the budget deficit. What’s not in the plan? No borrowing. No asset sales. No takes from local governments.
What are the chances of a Gov. Campbell?
Tiny, but not entirely impossible. The current lieutenant governor is running for an open Congressional seat. So maybe he quits the current gig to focus on that campaign. Maybe Gov. Schwarzenegger appoints Campbell as the new lieutenant governor – and then takes a nice long summer vacation to Idaho so Campbell can handle the unpleasant task of dealing with the budget.
Crazy, yes. But anyone got a better idea?