Can Tom Campbell be serious about running for governor? After all, the guy has a detailed plan on how he’ll handle the budget mess. And he says we need to temporarily raise taxes! No one REALLY running for governor puts that stuff in writing, or tells it to an audience of business people at the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce.
But that’s exactly what Campbell did yesterday.
Campbell knows he is running an unorthodox campaign. He readily admits that every political consultant would tell him not to talk about raising taxes. Campbell told a lunchtime gathering at the L. A. Chamber that voters want to vote for someone who is optimistic and uplifting. Well, Campbell admitted with a smile, his candidacy was testing that proposition.
Not that he isn’t optimistic about his chances of being elected California’s next governor. He likes how he is positioned in the Republican primary. But, he also knows he’s a candidate who offers bitter medicine, not sugar-laced prescriptions to fix California’s woes.
And, he doesn’t see a quick or smart ending to the current budget situation.
Campbell painted a dark picture of what might happen if the state runs out of cash in July. He told the Chamber audience a likely scenario is that a federal judge might intervene to demand California pay its bills.
While acknowledging that the state cannot go bankrupt, Campbell argued that a vendor with an unpaid invoice from the state could sue in Federal Court for breach of contract. Campbell’s prediction is the judge will order California to sell its assets to pay its debt to vendors. One problem: Under the Economic Recovery Bond measure California voters approved during a previous budget crunch; if state assets are sold they must first go to cover the bonds. Since $8.6 billion is still owed on the bonds, that means the state must first sell assets equal to that amount before securing a dime to satisfy the court’s judgment for any vendor who sues.
The former congressman, state senator and state finance director argues he may as well say what’s on his mind because he has a long track record that anyone can look up. But he also believes California must face its problems now while limiting damage to education at all levels and ceasing reliance on more borrowing. Campbell said that if California incurred no more debt but simply paid off its current debt at today’s rates it would take 84 years.
To balance the budget, Campbell offered a tough prescription of drastic cuts in the public sector, especially for public employees, and a temporary 32-cent a gallon gas tax.
Releasing specific details of a budget plan carries a risk, as the budget situation will change moving into the election year of 2010.
Campbell said candidates no longer could confront the budget crisis by claiming they will deal with it by cutting waste, fraud and abuse. “If the people of California fall for that I will be terribly disappointed,” he said.
While supporting the temporary tax increase, Campbell came out with hard line positions upholding the two-thirds vote for taxes, opposing a split roll property tax on business, and endorsing a tight spending limit.
Campbell argued without a two-thirds vote taxes would be higher than they are now and California would tax itself away from economic growth. He said Proposition 13’s property tax protection was the only positive argument he could use in attempting to keep business in the state. And, he believes the Gann Limit capping spending to population and inflation growth should be revived.
Campbell seemed unfazed that his opponents for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, have enormous wealth to contribute to a campaign. Noting that recent polls showed him with a lead, albeit with all candidates receiving small numbers, Campbell took heart in a little California history.
Recalling the Democratic gubernatorial primary of 1998, Campbell told the business people that in that race two wealthy Democrats, one who had never served in office and one who had a short resume battled it out, but fell to the third candidate, the financially poorer, but more experienced, Gray Davis. Lot of similarities, Campbell gleefully observed.
Campbell believes he has a secret weapon in the battle for governor. The issue of the day is the budget, and that’s his strength.