What will be the big political issue of 2010 in California? Reformers think the constitutional convention will seize public attention. Labor unions are hoping it will be their effort to eliminate the two-thirds vote for the budget (and perhaps taxes too). Gay couples hope the fight for marriage equality will take center stage. And then are the contenders for governor, who will raise and spend hundreds of millions of dollars in hopes that the political year will be all about them.
It says here that they’re all wrong. The issue of 2010 won’t be reform or marriage or even the gubernatorial election.
You won’t be able to see any of those issues through a thick haze of marijuana smoke.
It’s a good bet that an initiative to legalize and tax marijuana is headed to the November 2010 ballot. TaxCannabis2010.org already has begun planning. The measure should be cheap to qualify; signature gatherers, standing outside of grocery stores, will have little problem convincing people to sign that petition (unless, of course, the munchies are so extreme that signers won’t stop on their way in).
Don’t think marijuana is the issue that will draw the attention? Consider the following Exhibit #1. When President Obama conducted an Internet town hall meeting, he asked people to submit questions on-line. The number one subject, in these times, was not bailouts or wars or economic collapse—it was legalization of marijuana.
Here’s a fearless prediction: the marijuana initiative will become a serious political problem for other initiative sponsors. The constitutional convention advocates will have a difficult time getting the attention they need for measures to call a convention with such an initiative on the ballot. Those trying to change the two-thirds requirement for passing a budget will run into a similar buzz-saw. (Pun intended). Without attention, advocates of reform won’t be able to make the sale.