What a difference 200 days can make. When Obama took the oath of office at the end of January, the Democrats had a 7% lead in the Rasmussen generic congressional ballot – a simple poll that asks the question if the election were held today, would you prefer a Republican or a Democrat for Congress (no names – just a question of Party preference). As of September 6, 2009, that lead was symmetrically reversed to a 7% Republican lead – a historic 14% swing.
There are two main reasons for that reversal – style and substance.
On the substance side, there is no doubt that nationalized health care is sending a political shock wave through the electorate. Voters are deeply concerned about this issue because most voters are smart enough to realize (1) that Obama’s numbers don’t add up, (2) that huge government programs don’t work and reduce personal choices, and (3) the fact that it involves their own health care not just some other group of people. The health care debate comes on the heels of similar, deep seated concerns about Cap & Trade and the utter explosion of the Deficit. Those issues and others have given rise to a sense of buyer’s remorse on substance – and not just among those Republicans that strayed to vote for Obama – but among Independents who now favor Republicans 43% – 21% on that same Generic Ballot.
Perhaps just as bad as the substance problem, the Democrats have a style problem. It is rather apparent to voters that Pelosi, Reid and Obama are pressing ahead on nationalized health care – whether the voters like it or not. Indeed, the polls consistently show that voters do not favor this massive take-over of 17% of the economy yet the Democrats appear resolute to literally force this change on Americans.
Keep in mind: the Founders were against run away government. The separation of powers and checks and balances they designed was put forth to prevent government from listing too far in one direction or another. Indeed, the Founders hoped to foil fast moving change by setting up our present form of government. More than two centuries later, the ever more brilliant Founders would sit in amazement watching the Democrats force huge changes on the American system not only without consensus but with a “we don’t care what you think” attitude. Such run away government, anti-consensus politics is hurting the Democrats badly – especially among Independents.
What should the Republicans do in response? It should appear manifest at this point – they should beat the Democrats on style and substance. How?
Take the issue of Health Care: the Republicans should market piecemeal reforms based on the consensus that exists in Congress. Those reforms could include high-deductible health insurance plans, expanded health savings accounts and permitting insurance companies to compete across state lines – among other less far reaching ideas.
The marketing angle should be clear and concise: Balanced Reforms You Can Trust – Because the Choice Is Yours. The marketing effort should be bold – the very opposite of what Republicans do ordinarily. They should include the presentation of a coalition of health care providers, small business people and voters in townhalls, commercials, infomercials and more – all of them designed to explain the shortcomings of nationalized health care and balance of their reforms. In other words, the Republicans, as I have written before, need to get out of Washington and talk directly to the American people about why their freedom of choice in health care is a far more balanced approach then a government take-over. It’s not a question of a way – it’s a question of will.