The California elections in 2010 have all the makings of a three-ring circus and subscribers of the California Target Book, along with other political junkies, are coming together for a Sacramento conference on Thursday to get a first look on what’s coming down the pike.
California voters will likely be deciding on several ballot measures that could have a direct impact on how we elect our elected representatives and how they shall govern.
Should partisan primaries be scraped and be replaced with an open primary where the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, face a November runoff election? Should we have a part-time legislature? Should we change the way congressional district maps are drawn? Or, should we scrap everything and call for a constitutional convention to overhaul state government?
On the legislative campaign front, we’ll be replacing more than 25% of the state legislature with new people, mostly due to mandatory term limits. Those races are usually easy to read. But the massive decline in Republican voter registration makes more races interesting… and competitive. The increase in voters registering as Decline To States will also throw off the predictability scale of many contests.
As a long-time political consultant, however… what’s fascinating me the most these days is what will come of our congressional races.
Senator Barbara Boxer looks to have a well-financed GOP opponent in former HP CEO Carly Fiorina.
California’s members of the House of Representatives have tough races, too. Again, because of voter registration trends.
Watch the Central Valley’s Blue Dog Democrat Dennis Cardoza become a target by Republicans rejuvenated by tea bag parties and healthcare town hall screaming matches. Pleasanton’s Jerry McNerney will face another tough challenger.
Watch Republicans Dan Lungren and Ken Calvert become the focus of Nancy Pelosi and other Democratic leaders who think they have a shot at beating them with a Democrat challenger.
The same holds true for Palm Springs Republican Mary Bono Mack and, for the umpteenth time, North San Diego County’s Brian Bilbray.
Next year is shaping up to being one of the most volatile (meaning competitive) election cycles in more than a decade!
Maybe that will add to voter fatigue and cynicism.
I don’t think so.
These large number targeted races are democracy at its finest.
And it’s never too early to start looking for the drama.
For more information of the Target Book’s Sacramento Conference, please go to www.CaliforniaTargetBook.com.