The political landscape is changing rapidly as the public rejects the most extreme elements of the governing agenda Democrats continue to pursue. Several leading political indicators have moved decidedly in favor of the Republican Party, and no significant indicator shows any substantial movement in favor of the Democrats.
News reports covering the current political environment rarely draw a distinction between leading indicators showing where we are going, versus lagging indicators pointing to where we have been. To understand current political trends, it’s important to understand which indicators demonstrate change is taking place, and in which direction.
In reviewing the current political landscape, three indicators provide a picture of where the American electorate is going: party self-identification, generic ballot strength and presidential approval. I discussed each of these in my report to the state party convention on Sunday.
Republican Party self-identification up from 35% to 40%. Partisan affiliation is one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior. Over 80%, and often over 90%, of voters will cast ballots for the candidate of the party in which they are registered. Higher party self-identification rates mean a larger base of likely support for candidates of that party.
The number of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans has risen substantially while Democrat self-identification has fallen, according to Gallup. Democrats enjoyed a 52% to 35% lead in party identification in January. Today, their lead is only 5%, 45% to 40%.
Party identification is a leading indicator in part because it is a measure of preference. Voter registration statistics, by contrast, are a lagging indicator due to the fact that voters who change their party preference do not automatically or instantly re-register as a member of that party. Sustained changes in party identification statistics can take months or years to be reflected in changes in voter registration statistics.
Generic ballot strength. Asking likely voters to indicate which party’s candidate for Congress they intend to support in the next election is a key indicator of how voters view each party, and can serve as a valuable predictor of voting behavior.
At no point in 2008 did Republicans lead Democrats in this key test, serving as a predictor of the further gains the party would enjoy in the November election. That situation, however, has completely reversed.
Republicans now lead in the generic ballot test by single digits, and have held that lead since June, according to Rasmussen Reports.
Presidential approval rating. Although Barack Obama will not appear on the November 2010 ballot, his public approval rating will have a direct correlation with his party’s performance in the mid-term election.
In 10 of the the last 12 mid-term elections, the party in control of the White House has experienced a net loss of seats in Congress, as well as total state legislative seats held. There is also a direct correlation between the incumbent President’s approval rating on Election Day, and the number of seats his party has lost. This is because the President is the single largest defining factor for his party in the minds of voters.
Barack Obama’s public approval rating has plummeted since he took office, according to all major polling firms. Rasmussen Reports shows Obama’s approval rating has dropped from a high of 65% upon his taking office, to 48% today, a decline of 17% in eight months. On average, Presidents whose approval rating was under 50% on the day of their mid-term elections have experienced an average loss of 41 House seats.
Taken together, these trends indicate a Democratic Party on the decline, and a Republican Party in ascent as Americans look for an alternative to the direction Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress intend to take the country.