Here’s a quick read from a report on the Field Poll results dealing with budget reform released today: The status quo seems safe for now.
Yes, a majority of respondents to the poll said they supported fundamental changes to the state constitution by way of a constitutional convention. But, any political consultant worth his or her salt will tell you that a 51% affirmative result is not a ringing endorsement. Once details of the changes are made public that 51% undoubtedly will slip under majority rather quickly.
In fact, some of the most talked about budget related changes the poll respondents batted down. Not surprisingly, reducing the two-thirds vote to a simple majority to raise taxes was crushed, 27% Yes, 69% No. Even the much ballyhooed idea to pass the state budget by a simple majority vote instead of a two-thirds vote couldn’t gain a majority in this poll: 43% Yes, 52% No.
Potential changes to the tax system fared no better. A simple description of the recent proposal that came out of the tax commission was rejected by 65%. Those who participated in the poll thought the state had enough money to do its job by cutting waste and inefficiencies.
All this will make it more difficult for reformers to push their ideas forward with the public. That is not to say voters attitudes cannot change quickly, or that they reject all reforms.
With the announcement by the state controller that the state continues to run in the red and is collecting $1 billion less than expected in tax revenue over the past three months, Californians might consider some changes. One that comes to mind is a hard spending limit.
The only item in the Field Poll that received resounding support asked if initiative sponsors should identify funding sources or budget cuts to fund their proposal. By an overwhelming margin of 75% to 17% the respondents agreed.
Such a requirement might cut down the number of successful initiatives. Only about a third of the initiatives that make the ballot pass now. That number would drop if tax increases and/or cuts were added to certain measures.
Of course, we are a year away from voters making decisions on any reforms that appear on the ballot. As the cliché goes, a year is a lifetime in politics. However, decisions on which reforms to pursue are being made now and reformers will have to think long and hard if they can change voters’ minds.