In the latest political indicator to show further shift toward Republicans, independent voters are now favoring GOP congressional candidates by 22% over their Democrat competitors, according to Gallup.
The ongoing shift of unaffiliated voters toward the Republican Party stands in stark contrast to the 2006 and 2008 elections when independent voters preferred Democrats. Taken alone this trend is significant enough, but when viewed together with falling Presidential approval (47%) and growing numbers of Americans who are identifying with the Republican Party (40%, up from 35% in Jan.), we see that we are working in a political environment very different than the one we were in a year ago.
When reviewing political trends, one common mistake is to assume that by definition independent voters are all ideological centrists whose personal philosophy falls somewhere in between the Republican and Democrat parties. The subsequent advice from those who make this assumption is that victory goes to whichever side chooses to “move to the center.” Simple.
Yet, the dramatic shift of independent voters away from Democrats and toward Republicans does not coincide with any change in Republican positions on the issues of the day. In fact, the Republican Party that takes the Speaker’s gavel back from Nancy Pelosi will be a much more disciplined and principled one than the party that gave it to her. Call it the tea party effect.
The Republican Party has not drawn the support of a majority of today’s independent voters by suddenly favoring “some” tax increases, or “a little” more government control of health care or destroying “fewer” jobs than the Democrats would with cap and trade.
Yet the trend among independent voters is unmistakable: they are leaving the Democrats in droves.
The reality is that while many independent voters are ideological centrists, many others would be described differently: disaffected Republicans, libertarians, single issue voters, or folks who are – perish the thought – just not all that interested in politics. This is why a simple “move to the center” approach cannot, and does not, explain the current trend. The independent electorate is more complicated, and contains many more subgroups, than is assumed in day to day political reporting.
What does explain the current trend among independents is that the policies currently being pursued by Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are just not all that popular, and voters are again willing to turn to the Republican Party to provide an alternative.
On issue after issue, we see that the bills coming out of the legislative sausage factory under Democrat control, and Administration policies, are far more liberal than the country is comfortable with.
Gallup reports that 53% of Americans disapprove of the Administration on health care policy, 53% disapprove on the economy. Taxes and especially the ballooning federal debt are of major concern to voters. Putting Khalid Sheikh Mohammed into a civilian courtroom instead of a military tribunal? Another loser. The list goes on.
As America emerges from the holiday season, it will enter year that is very different than the one it leaves behind. A resurgent Republican opposition combined with an issues matrix that favors limited government is sure to make 2010 an interesting one for all concerned. Independent voters will play a critical role in the debate throughout the coming year.