Everyone is expecting a big initiative election year—and it still could happen. But where are the petition signature gatherers?
There were none in front of a Sacramento Wal-Mart yesterday. There were none in front of a Los Angeles Wal-Mart on Saturday. In fact, I have not run into one person carrying a petition seeking signatures for a ballot measure.
By rights the signature gatherers should be everywhere pulling a cart full of different petitions. They could not carry all the measures that have passed through the Attorney General’s office for title and summary.
All who follow such things know that about 90 or so initiatives have been filed as citizens try to compete with legislators to see who can write the most laws. With so many initiatives on record you would expect signature gatherers to be hard at work. Many of the major initiatives that have big money backers are ready to go but so far no major push.
That is not to say that there is no activity on initiatives. There are some petitions being circulated by paid circulators. There are volunteer efforts in place even if some of the professional signature gatherers have not been fully engaged. The folks behind the tax increase for state parks have sent around mailings to ask for volunteer signature gatherers. The activists behind the constitutional convention initiative have sent out an email to bring volunteers to certain locations and begin the signature gathering process.
But so far the big moneyed interests have not sent out hoards of gatherers to secure the necessary signatures to qualify their measures for the November election. The moneyed interests like the public employee unions and business have some leeway. If they offer enough money per signature they feel they don’t need the full 150 days offered by the constitution to qualify a measure for the ballot.
But every week that passes makes the cost per signature that more expensive.
So why the delay? The big players are still holding their cards close to their vests, eyeing their opponents across the card table, fanning out the cards one more time for a peek and wondering if they have a winning hand. The joker in the deck is the economy. Effects of the recession could make the reaction of voters hard to gauge. Sure proponents have polls to measure such things. But, it is uncertain times not only for the voters, but also for the political experts who make calls on whether a ballot measure will succeed. Particular interests try to judge if pursuing one measure will generate a counter move from opponents to actively promote a measure the interests don’t want to see go forward.
Soon the players will have to lay down the cards or fold. If the latter, the great initiative war predicted for 2010 may sound like a shrill note instead of a trumpet charge.