High-propensity Republican voters split on the idea of a top-two primary system according to the poll conducted by M4 Strategies and released by the Small Business Action Committee today.
The top-two primary concept, incorporated in Proposition 14 on the June ballot, received 43.5% Yes and 36.3% No with nearly 20% undecided. Sometimes called the Open Primary, the measure would allow all voters to vote for any candidate in a primary election with the top two finishers facing-off in the general election regardless of their party affiliation.
Usually a measure that scores under fifty percent months before Election Day is doomed to failure. However, this poll reflects only Republican voter attitudes. The measure will undoubtedly be popular with independent voters who make up 20% of the electorate and who often determine the outcome of many elections in California.
The Yes side is hunting for votes from Independents. The ballot argument in favor of the measure speaks to them directly: Proposition 14 will give independent voters an equal voice in primary elections.
The Republican Party and Democratic Party, as well as minor parties, oppose the measure. While party leaders will try to convince party activists to oppose, how much sway they have with average rank and file members is uncertain. Over a decade ago, voters passed an Open Primary formula that was also strongly opposed by the major parties. That ballot measure, Proposition 198 in 1996, passed overwhelmingly with nearly 60% of the vote, but eventually was rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court as unconstitutional. Proposition 14 has been written to satisfy the Court’s objections.
Nary a party official or elected representative appears anywhere near the ballot arguments for or against Proposition 14. The No argument hooks up the strange bedfellows of public sector unions and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. The taxpayer group warns that passing the measure will lead to tax increases by unaccountable politicians. The unions are afraid of losing power over the majority members of the legislature who usually support the unions’ interests.
Republican men surveyed on the question were split down the middle while Republican women thought the proposal was a good idea by a 45%-30% margin. The Bay Area and Northern California were strongest for the measure; its weakest support was in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. However, two generally Republican areas of the state, the Inland Empire and San Diego both supported the idea by a margin of more than 10%.
As I reported yesterday, the survey was conducted February 16 and 17 among 427 high-propensity Republican voters. The margin of error was 4.74%. M4 Strategies based in Orange County conducted the poll.