Wednesday was a busy day for spin in the governor’s race. Cut through all the talk about polls and general election viability, and two things stand out.
1. Whitman and Poizner are both losing.
Losing in the sense that each is unpopular – and becoming more so. Whitman strategist Mike Murphy and his Poizner counterpart Stu Stevens each did an effective job of explaining the problems of his candidate’s opponent. Murphy made a convincing case that Poizner’s move right in the primary would cost him badly against Jerry Brown in a general election. Stevens was convincing in describing Whitman’s strategic missteps and vulnerabilities as a CEO candidate who wasn’t engaged in political and civic life until recently.
Whatever you choose to believe about the polls, neither candidate has the majority needed to win. Also, both sides indicated that more negative attacks are coming – which should make Whitman and Poizner even less popular than they are now.
2. The two candidates are fighting fiercely for older voters.
Whitman’s new ad, released Wednesday, starts with a direct appeal to senior citizens, before arguing that Poizner would be bad for the old and people on fixed incomes. When I asked Murphy on a conference call whether Whitman had a weakness with older voters or whether the ad mentioned the old because Republican primary voters are an older demographic, he replied: "I think it’s kind of both."
Murphy said estimates put the average age of voters in a California Republican primary in the late 50s. (Some pollsters suggest the average age is north of 60).
Either way, the ad revealed the central irony of the GOP primary: Whitman and Poizner – two people who made their fortunes in the digital economy – must win over today’s senior citizens – including millions of analog types who have been slowest to adapt to technological change.
Who says the political gods don’t have a sense of humor?