This is an important week for sizing up what the November ballot will look like as the Secretary of State is set to declare by week’s end what initiatives have qualified for the ballot. County registrars are frantically counting signatures on six initiative measures so see if they qualify for the ballot.
However, the final catalogue of measures on the ballot may not be set for a while.
The water bond measure placed on the ballot for November by the legislature and governor could be removed. All ready stories are circulating that raising funds for the measure has been more difficult that anticipated. On top of that, the measure has been heavily criticized for its pork-barrel nature, including items that were placed in the bond just to capture legislative votes.
In addition, a crowded ballot of ten measures or so could result in a backlash with many voters simply choosing to vote No. Supporters of the bond consider a long ballot an obstacle to success.
The suggestion that the bond measure be pulled, re-worked and placed on another ballot has been discussed for some time.
The water bond measure is important to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who tagged fixing the water infrastructure as one of the chief reforms of his administration. November is the last time he will have the bully pulpit to lead a campaign for infrastructure change.
But Schwarzenegger could be facing another challenge in November if the proposition to suspend AB 32 qualifies for the ballot. The greenhouse gases law is the governor’s pride and joy and his attention and fundraising acumen could be severely tested overseeing his last campaign if he has to split attention between two measures.
Schwarzenegger, who has not publicly stated what he plans to do after he leaves office, could decide to continue his public involvement by supporting reform measures and include a re-structured or delayed water bond as his first project, but that would be a huge political gamble.
So, while political insiders and special interests wait to see what initiatives make the November ballot this week joining the already qualified state parks tax, extending the redistricting commission to effect congressional seats, and a marijuana legalization measure, the actual look of the November ballot could be determined only after some political horse trading over water.