Both candidates for governor, and especially Jerry Brown, face what might be called the Human Sacrifice Dilemma.
What’s that?
I first encountered the HSD while researching a book on Gov. Schwarzenegger. In looking through polling conducted by the governor’s political team in early 2004, it was clear that there was strong public support for an increase in the sales tax as part of a plan for getting the state out of its budget crisis. Even when arguments against such a tax increase were read to those surveyed, the sales tax remained popular. The data seemed to argue for Gov. Schwarzenegger to endorse such a tax.
But there was a problem. The same polling showed that Gov. Schwarzenegger would suffer politically if he supported such a sales tax, despite the public acceptance of the policy. In other words, the governor would have to sacrifice politically to back a policy that that public saw as necessary.
This was the Human Sacrifice Dilemma. (Schwarzenegger, of course, chose self-preservation over Human Sacrifice).
Understanding this dilemma explains why Jerry Brown is approaching taxes. Private and public polling continues to show support for using a mix of tax increases and budget cuts to control the deficit. But it’s a safe bet that the polling Brown himself sees also shows that he would suffer politically for supporting such measures.
So Brown declares that he would only raise taxes if voters were to approve. You could call this cowardly. It’s also an attempt to get around the Human Sacrifice Dilemma. Will it work? We may start to get an answer in November.