Would anybody be surprised to see a state budget deal fashioned on an unlikely possibility?
Let me explain. The budget is a couple of weeks late with no outward sign of completion. The governor and Republicans have insisted on a cuts only budget. The Democrats insist on tax increases along with some borrowing and moving around funds.
Both the Assembly and Senate Democrats have supported an oil severance tax that is estimated to bring in $1-billion. However, this tax plan has no support from the Republicans and probably little from the voters since they defeated a similar proposal at the polls a few years ago.
However, there is another potential tax that might also raise a billion dollars and the taxpayers paying that tax may not resist – a tax on marijuana if Proposition 19 passes.
Could a budget deal happen that contains a provision that includes the billion or so in tax revenue if Prop 19 passed?
No, probably not. And, I’m not advocating it, but desperate times search for desperate solutions and you don’t know what they’ll cook up under the capitol dome.
While such a deal would require a back-up plan — say, if the projected billion dollars from the tax is included in the budget document and Prop 19 fails, there will be a billion dollars in additional cuts spelled out in the budget- in reality, no back-up plan has ever been included in circumstances such as this.
Consider a recent budget plan signed by the governor contained the billion-dollar sale of the state insurance fund that never materialized, yet the legislature and the governor checked off a billion on the budget balance sheet.
This past weekend state Democratic Party officials voted to remain neutral on Prop 19, concerned that the Democratic nominees for statewide office have already come out against the measure. However, news reports indicated that the Democrats at the meeting were gung-ho for the initiative.
Which might explain why even this idea would not move forward. Never mind that many legislators don’t want to be on record supporting the marijuana initiative. Even if that were not an obstacle, there is another political reason Republicans would vote no.
Democratic Party chairman John Burton made no secret in his belief that the initiative will bring young people to the polls to vote for the measure. Burton and other Democrats reason while at the polls, the great majority of these younger voters will also cast their ballots for Democratic candidates. Republicans who buy this theory will not want to entice a higher Democratic turnout.
Still, as the budget season drags on state legislators will want to get the budget done. They don’t need a lingering unresolved budget crisis to serve as a red cape to enraged voters as the election draws near. Incumbents, we are told by pollsters, are already in trouble.
If the tax promised by the marijuana measure were part of the budget deal it would certainly have some legislators argue that the measure has to pass to avoid devastating cuts.
The marijuana measure is on shaky grounds in early polls. While the voters seem split on the idea, an initiative that doesn’t have a strong showing in early polls usually loses. Proposition 19 has not topped 50-percent.
But the legislature has passed what is called "get out of town" budgets in the past. Those are budgets that really don’t add up mathematically but can be made to look like a balanced document if the legislators close their eyes and make believe.
Some might think the scenario discussed above is a marijuana-induced hallucination, but strange solutions are always part of the budget debate and few options remain to make the budget work.
A budget plan containing expected revenue from a marijuana tax couldn’t happen – could it?