The debate – well, calling it a debate is charitable, so let’s say the never-ending yelling match – over taxes in California politics makes little sense, particularly when applied to the governor’s race.
Meg Whitman says she opposes tax increases. Jerry Brown says he opposes them, unless the public goes along. Who to believe?
If past is prologue, believe Brown. And get ready for a Whitman tax increase.
Whitman, after all, is a Republican. And in California, the only real certainties are sunshine, beautiful people, and Republican governors who raise taxes. The current governor signed on to a temporary increase in taxes during the 2009 budget deal. (He also led the passage of Prop 57 in 2004, which was a general obligation bond – a tax increase in reality, only the taxed were the future taxpayers who have to pay it off).
Pete Wilson famously raised taxes in his first term. So did Ronald Reagan. (George Deukmejian raised taxes too – "fees" and "loophole closures" were the terms of art).
And the Democrats? Under Gray Davis and, yes, Jerry Brown, state taxes went down. In fact, Brown’s first governorship saw the largest decline in the state and local tax burden in California on record, according to numbers from the Tax Foundation.
(Yes, Prop 13, which he opposed, explains a lot of that. But if
Republicans are going to blame him for the resulting deficit, and if
folks like me are going to blame him for the governance problems Prop
13 helped create, he ought to get credit for the tax cuts).
Why is that? Each tax decision was different. But here’s one thought: there’s a special pressure on a Republican governor in a system that requires a two-thirds vote to raise taxes.
The Republican governor looks bad to independent voters when he or she is forced to cut important programs, and thus has a political incentive for tax increases. And a Republican governor stands a better chance of getting minority Republicans to go along with budget-balancing tax increases – in part because the Republican governor will get some of the blame that would otherwise fall entirely on tax-raising Republicans under a Democratic governor.
Whitman would seem to be a likely candidate to raise taxes. She has boxed herself in with other promises, including pledges to do more on education, add funding to higher education and build more prisons. Those things cost money. And if California tax revenues continue to come up short, a tax increase might look pretty attractive.