Granted, Jerry Brown is crazy. But in this screwball state, he might be crazy in a good way.
Who knows what Governor Brown will do? I don’t. I doubt Jerry knows either. But, oddly enough, I predict that, from a fiscal conservative viewpoint, he’ll be far better than any of us imagined.
Not great. Perhaps not even good. Just better than conservatives expect — a lot better.
I would have preferred Meg Whitman as governor. But not by much. I viewed her as Arnold in a skirt. I ended up voting for the Libertarian Dale Ogden, and felt good about it afterwards.
Jerry Brown is an iconoclast who has reached the final office of his long political career. He was put back in the governorship by the Democrats — especially the labor unions. But there is no political reason for him to pander to his supporters.
This is his legacy office — the one he’s going to be most remembered for. So, like most politicians, naturally Jerry Brown will be concerned with his swan song performance.
Jerry is facing monstrous state problems. A bottomless budget deficit. Unfunded pension obligations that are simply unfathomable. A Democrat legislature that now can pass damn near any budget it wants by simple majority vote. A high speed rail project that is a spectacular financial train wreck bearing down on us all. A hara-kiri global warming bill (AB32) that will gut the state’s economy starting in 2011. High unemployment, high taxes, a terrible business climate. Little prospect for economic improvement. The likely acceleration of departing businesses and productive/wealthy people.
I’m predicting that Jerry doesn’t want all that to happen — certainly not on his watch. And, contrary to what people think, he’s smart enough to know he can do much to reduce the problems.
So here are my perhaps reckless predictions:
- This spring Jerry WILL propose tax increases, but they will likely go to a citizen vote by summer, and likely will be turned down. I suspect he KNOWS that they will be turned down. But he’s gotta try. It’s in the Democrat DNA.
- The legislature will extend the 1% sales tax and most other "temporary taxes" they passed a couple years ago. They will get the needed legislative 2/3 vote by culling out a couple weak RINO’s from the GOP herd. The doomsday imagery of ending these taxes will just be too much for some Republicans — and for the public. Jerry will support the tax extensions.
- In a surprise move, Jerry will veto whatever Democrat budget is passed, demanding spending cuts. To override the veto will require a 2/3 vote, and so the GOP will be back in play in the budget process. Gridlock and delay will result, but no legislator will be fined a dime under Prop 25 — because the initial spendthrift "budget" will be passed on time (which is all Prop 25 requires). With Brown’s surprising resistance to the big spenders in his own party, 2011 could see an epic budget battle the likes of which we haven’t heretofore witnessed.
- Brown will suspend AB32, the global warming measure that is Arnold Schwarzenegger’s legacy. It’s inconceivable to me that Brown would go ahead with this Draconian legislation at this time, only to end up overseeing the demise of our state. But that’s part of the joy of electing Jerry Brown — ultimately his decision could end up depending on what he has for breakfast that morning. That being said, when the suspension of AB32 reaches the end of its locked-in time frame, what happens next is anybody’s guess.
- Brown will call for major pension reform. Not major enough, mind you, but far more than the public employee labor unions were hoping for. And he will be resistant to any public employee pay or benefit increases.
- Brown will push for some significant deregulation to make our state less hostile to business. Actually, I’m expecting some pleasantly surprising proposals from him in this regard. We saw some of this innovative thinking towards the end of his first gubernatorial tenure — though it never amounted to anything concrete.
Will Brown’s actions save the state? Sadly, even if I’m right, the answer is "no." We are a state doomed to decline — at least for the next few years.
The problems are too big for Jerry Brown to solve — especially with a state legislature owned and operated by the labor unions. But he’s gonna try to do the right thing.
More often than not. I hope.