Should
the Governor today propose tax increases to be voted on by the people in June, as strongly rumored, then I will look forward
to answers to several questions:
1.
How will he place the
question on the ballot? There are only three ways to put a tax measure on the
ballot: (a) citizen initiative, (b) legislative amendment of an approved voter initiative
(by a majority legislative vote), or (c) legislative constitutional amendment
(2/3rds legislative vote).
2.
If by citizen
initiative, is there enough time and resources to make a June deadline?
3.
If by amending an
approved voter initiative, which initiatives would be amended?
4.
If by constitutional
amendment, would the amendment put the actual tax increases in the
Constitution, or would the tax increases be approved by the Legislature
contingent on passage of a constitutional amendment on a different subject
(say, budget reform)?
Among the
many challenges facing the Governor as he attempts to dig the state out of its
fiscal mess is how he will present tax increases to the voters. As Governor
Schwarzenegger discovered to his dismay in both 2005 and 2009, how a measure
reaches the ballot can profoundly influence its outcome. The 2005 measures were
put on the ballot by voter initiative, which forced a rush to draft the
measures, limited vetting, which in turn undercut the campaign messaging. The
2009 tax extensions were tied to passage of a constitutional amendment on
budget reform, which was criticized by opponents as a ruse to hide the true
intent of the Governor and Legislature.