If Congress is looking forward to their annual Summer Recess,
they had better think twice, and then a third time. We are told that we shall hit the National
Debt Ceiling in early August. The closer
we get, the more nervous we are making international investors.
Want to see our interest rates rise? Do nothing.
Want to risk international fiscal chaos? Do nothing.
The IMF has released a statement urging the most expeditious
raising of the National Debt Ceiling.
Confronting the unthinkable – our government will be unable to pay its
bills – why are we playing this insane game of Chicken? Half a Billion dollars of our Debt has to be
rolled over in early August – how do we expect to borrow more money if we
default, or, and here’s the critically important part, if we even make
investors think that we even could
default on our National Debt.
The old gamblers rule of survival – ‘never bet what you
can’t afford to lose’ – is now officially in play. At a time when the threat of a Double Dip
Recession (really a 21stC Depression, if you ask me) has become a near-reality,
thus forcing a replay of 1937, when FDR and Treasury Secty. Morgenthau had to
make the agonizing ‘cut or spend’ decision, which will surely pre-occupy the
debate in the 2012 election season which is just out of the starting gates.
I heard on a talk show the other day that our National Debt
Ceiling has been raised some 102 times.
Why then is this so agonizing?
More importantly, why are some in Congress willing to flirt with a
financial TrainWreck that will make the Crash of 2008 and the Great Recession
of 2008-11 look like being unable to balance your checkbook after returning
from a vacation?
Our national credit-worthiness is not a ‘given,’ in times
like these. Just like with any consumer
of financial services, our nation is rated as to its credit-worthiness in
connection with any borrowing it needs to do.
Even appearing like we might not raise the National Debt Ceiling, is
needlessly tempting the fates – tempting those who would lend the US money to
pay our debts, a very regular occurrence here in the richest nation in the
history of the human race, to think twice about whether or not their loan will
be repaid, and to seriously consider lowering our national credit rating. This could happen any day, particularly if we
ignore pronouncements and urgings of the International Monetary Fund. And, when our national credit rating is
lowered, all bets are off – we could find our nation unable to raise the money
we need to pay our debts through the continuing investments of those who buy
our Treasury Paper all over the world.
We are not the only game in town when it comes to these investments and
those who make these investments, thus lending our nation the money we need to
pay our bills on time, regularly – they are not perpetually obligated to buy
our US Treasury Paper – nobody is holding a gun to their heads, nor could
they.
The reason why investors worldwide choose to invest in
lending the US money is that, historically, US Treasury Paper has been a truly
safe, rock solid investment – we’ve never yet defaulted on our National Debt –
not even a small portion of it. In
another month or so, this may no longer be the case.
Once this barn door opens and these horses escape, it is
anybody’s guess what the BlowBack from this game of Chicken with our National
Debt, might really prove to be. It has
never happened, therefore, your guess is literally as good as mine; but,
forecasts that it will be another Panic like 2008’s Lehman Bros. Meltdown,
except on steroids, and similar dire predictions, do not sound very appetizing,
now do they?
Like a person who is unemployed and running out of their
savings, a tragic scenario all too common these days, one then must select
which bills to pay and which to skip paying – there is simply not enough money
left to pay them all. So, who would like
their Ox to Be Gored first? – Veterans, who risked their lives to keep our
country safe and secure? Elderly and disabled social security recipients,
people that each of us could become one fine day? How about Medicare recipients awaiting major
life-saving surgeries, or trying to keep their donut holes plugged in an era of
rapidly rising costs for medical services and medication? Perhaps we could skip paying all federal
employees, let them fend for themselves and, in turn, select which of their
creditors they would like to pay, and which to skip – placing their own
credit-worthiness in jeopardy. How long
until unpaid federal employees keep showing up to work without pay?
It is irrational to the extreme to continue this Fiscal
Dance with the Devil. Extending our Debt
Limit is not about taking on more debt; it is about honoring our contractual
obligations and paying our existing debts.
As Larry the Cable Guy is wont to say: "Git’ Er Done, Already!!!"