Nearly one hundred proposed ballot initiatives have been filed with the Attorney General so far this year. This is not an unusual number, nor is it unusual that so many far-reaching and apparently well-funded measures have been proposed in the past 30 days.
The close of the calendar year prior to an election year is traditionally an active time for ballot measure submittals. Call it a “second season” for policy, coming after the regular, dreary legislative session. The ballot initiative calendar plus the unproductive Legislature trigger this bloom of policy ideas from well-funded interest groups and individuals from across the ideological spectrum.
So while this efflorescence of measures is not surprising, worth noting is that so many measures to raise taxes are competing for limited voter attention on the November ballot.
Even if one assumes voters may be inclined to approve a tax increase, a viewpoint based more on hope than experience, can the proponents actually believe that voters would swallow more than one tax increase? And if so, would voters support more than one increase of the same tax for the same purpose? And if not, are the proponents betting that voters would discriminate among the tax increase proposals and support one or some and not others?
Or is this a giant game of “chicken” among the various interest groups and politicians angling for the best shot at prevailing next November?
At least six well-financed and apparently serious efforts are jockeying for position for November: income tax increases promoted by Gov. Brown, the California Federation of Teachers, and philanthropist Molly Munger; a split roll property tax rumored to be the brainchild of the California Teachers Association; an oil severance tax promoted by Democratic Party leader John Burton; and a new services tax conceived by the Think Long Committee. Each of these individuals and organizations is credible for their access to substantial campaign finances. Add to these a couple focused efforts to raise taxes for environmental programs, hedge funder Tom Steyer’s proposal to increase corporate taxes on out-of-state companies and proposals to broaden the definition of “fee” established by last year’s Proposition 26.
All of these measures are in a quiet period, as the Attorney General and Legislative Analyst undertake a mandatory review and analysis, but this hasn’t stopped some of the proponents from raising the stakes. This week, the leader of the California Democratic Party unveiled the oil severance tax, stating his belief that the initiative didn’t detract from the Governor’s “in any way.” Perhaps more pointed, a consultant for the California Federation of Teachers, upon releasing a public opinion survey this week, concluded that their “millionaires tax ballot initiative has the best chance of success in the November 2012 general election.”
So many tax proposals, just one ballot. It might make the Governor pine for a legislative solution, after all.