Iran did it’s post-revolutionary best to affect the US 1980 election. 2012 gives them another chance. Israel does not have a history of waiting around for a neighbor’s attacks – in 1967, the Israeli Air Force destroyed the entire Egyptian Air Force, while still on the ground. With Iran financially strangled by sanctions and Israel critically concerned about an IslamoBomb in the fevered hands of Iran’s NutJob leaders, whoever they may be – is it déjà vu-all-over-again-time?!?
We are witnessing a covert, proxy war between Iran and Israel now, being fought out in a few, so far, cities around the globe – tit for tat; you stick a bomb on my diplomat’s car – we stick one on yours. You kill one of our nuclear scientists; we kill one of yours.
The stakes are dramatically high this time – as we have seen, Russia and China will not join us in UN attempts to stop Syria from its genocide against its own people; likely, they fear much home-turf unrest from their own forced-together ethnic groups. But, on which side will Russia and China come down if an all-out, real-time war between Israel and Iran should break out between now and when we vote this November? Your guess is as good as mine.
Nobody, not even Russia and China, will sit idly by if Iran attempts blocking the Straits of Hormuz – we have an aircraft carrier, and accompanying navy fleet, near there right now, together with incredible firepower located all over the Indian Ocean, at the ready for support of our wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan these past 10 years. Even Iran, in its worst arrogance, can’t be that foolish. Or could they?
It is in the genre of Weapons of Mass Destruction that things could get very dicey, indeed. We don’t know if Iran yet has the capability of blowing up a nuke, of any size. We do know that certain elements of Radical Islamic factions have been seeking to buy a nuke, any nuke – perhaps a suitcase nuke – on the Black Market, and it is a minor miracle that, with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90’s, they have not bought one, or more, since then. So much nuclear material remains unaccounted for.
Iran has demonstrated its capabilities in the areas of biological and germ warfare. Ricin, which is actually derived in part from Castor Oil (the same plant, that is), a horrible-tasting substance, which, if you are old enough, you may remember being forced to ingest via a spoonful down the gullet. It also was weaponized and the Soviets once had stockpiles of it – which means that terrorists may have had the opportunity to acquire some over the almost 20 years since the USSR became just a charming oddity on old maps.
In 1978, Bulgarian dissident, Georgi Markov, was ‘shot’ on a London street through an umbrella, powered by compressed gas, carried by a passerby (a Bulgarian secret police passerby, that is), who fired a very small ricin pellet into Markov’s leg, found in Markov’s autopsy after he died a day or two later. The KBG is believed to have passed the weaponized ricin to the Bulgarian secret police.
We never did figure out who sent the weaponized anthrax while we were all in post-9/11 shock, in the Fall of 2001. But, that stuff, which occurs naturally but needs the help of a scientist or two to become really lethal, killed postal workers who just handled envelopes containing it!
There are hundreds of types of poisons and germs that can be used to kill, anonymously and from afar, and Iran has Hezbollah and other agents spread out all across the world, who can deliver them. A dozen people deliberately infected with smallpox, the one we thought we had cured not that many decades ago, could sicken a whole city, if they attended Opening Day at an American MLB Ballpark in early April.
So, where does the US come in, if Iran and Israel ratchet up the Spy vs. Spy activities worldwide, preparatory to attacking each other the old-fashioned way, with rockets, missiles, and bombs falling from the sky? Well, we have treaty obligations to Israel, our one true friend in the Middle East whom we have richly supported since it’s independence just a couple of years after hostilities concluded in WWII.
The US will not stand by and watch Iran attack Israel, no matter who is elected come November. But, the real danger is if this kind of stuff happens in the 8+ months between now and our 2012 elections. And, will China, Russia and others simply stand by, if the US supports Israel attacking Iran? This will not be like the fabled Entebbe Raid, where Israel magnificently rescued hostages, held by a nation that nobody in their right mind liked – nor will it be like Jimmy Carter’s flailing attempts to rescue the hostages that Iran held circa 1979-80.
Also, it is looking less and less possible that Iran will really come to the table and accept diplomatic invitations to work this out without killing innocents. And, if they do, nobody trusts them, or their word, anyway – not as long as that scrawny guy, badly in need of a shave, or a real beard, with the barely pronounceable name, wearing the zippered golf jacket, continues to ‘front’ for the less than rational Mullahs, who actually run Iran.
Lest we forget, Iran is what the military folks call, a ‘hardened target.’ Whatever its scientists are up to, they are often doing it in bunkers, built deep underneath Iran’s mountainous terrain – the kind of targets that the US can hit with our giant bunker-busting bombs. Does Israel have them too?
Nobody can even pin Israel down on whether it has nukes, but, under its current hawkish leadership, most believe that Israel can, and will, make Tehran glow in the dark, should Iran somehow attempt to deliver a nuke on Israeli soil, or otherwise dare attack Israel, which showed remarkable restraint in recent years when it’s citizenry were under rocket attacks, from Saddam and others.
As Hardy said to Laurel: “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten me into!” But, we can’t blame it on anybody except Iran and it’s leaders this time.