Professor Jack Pitney of Claremont McKenna College, one of most quoted political experts in the state, has been doing 2012 election primary and debate analysis with me at Fox 11 and Channel 13 in Los Angeles over the last couple of months. During our wait time between the two broadcasts Super Tuesday night, I took the opportunity to ask him his observations on some political matters.
Given Mitt Romney’s good enough, but hardly great, finish in the many primary elections yesterday, I wondered if Pitney thought California would actually have a meaningful primary June 5.
“It’s possible. I think it’s likely Romney clinches it before California but Santorum could keep it competitive. This battle is a case of heart versus wallet. Enough Republicans voters are drawn to heart. Enough Republicans have seen Rocky. Of course, they forget that Rocky lost.”
In 2007, Pitney, speaking of coming presidential politics at a Los Angeles business conference, stunned the audience when he suggested the Republican vice-presidential candidate could be the little known Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin. So I asked him whom he thinks the Republicans might look at this time for the number two spot on the ticket.
“The logical name is Marco Rubio (United States Senator from Florida). But as a dark horse they might consider New Mexico governor Susana Martinez. Like Palin four years ago, she has not been in office long. Unlike Palin, she would undergo extreme vetting. They would play political Jeopardy with her” (to make sure what she knows.)
Turning to California, I asked the professor if there would be more than one income tax increase on the California ballot in November. “A lot depends on Molly Munger,” he said, acknowledging her determination to stick with her initiative and the fact that she has the wherewithal to make it happen.
If Governor Brown is successful in clearing the field of other tax measures, will his tax measure pass? Pitney’s response:
“It’s going to be a tough sell. With the governor talking about a massively expensive high speed rail, a lot of voters will think, if you can afford that, why have a tax increase?”