This marks the fifth annual version of the California Office Pool. It was inspired by the late, great New York Times columnist William Safire, who made a habit of writing a year-end column he called Office Pool. In it, Safire offered, multiple-choice style, a series of possible news events that could take place in the year ahead. At the column’s end, he let you know which ones he thought would occur.
Safire’s focus was Washington; ours is California. My picks are at the end.
I am resolving to do better with next year’s selections than I did with 2013’s. I correctly predicted that USC-affiliated chief executives Lane Kiffin (the football coach) and Mohammed Morsi (president of Egypt) wouldn’t be able to stay in power. And I came five yards short being right about the 49ers winning the Super Bowl. But I also thought we’d have a small deficit instead of a small surplus, and Antonio Villaraigosa didn’t become Transportation Secretary. And I never saw that the biggest political story of the year would involve the mayor of San Diego.
Below are the 2014 questions. Be sure to make your predictions, and clip n’ save (or bookmark and save) so we can see how we did at the end of next year.
- How much will Twitter be worth on Dec. 1, 2013?
#HoldingSteady right around today’s market cap of $25 billion
Soaring well above $30 billion as #Tweets only #increase
Falling down to earth, below $20 billion as #analysts have been predicting #lol - In its November 2014 budget projection for the 2015-2016 budget year, the non-partisan Legislative Analyst’s Office will project:
A. That the budget will have a surplus of greater than $10 billion
B. A big surplus of between $5 and $10 billion
C. A small surplus of less than $5 billion
D. The budget will be just about balanced
E. That the budget will be in deficit - The biggest California political story of 2014 will be:
A. Speculation that, with his easy re-election, Jerry Brown will run for president in 2016
B. A massive earthquake or other natural disaster
C. Disincorporation of a half-dozen new cities around the state
D. A massive initiative war over health care that becomes a referendum on Obamacare
E. A never-ending pension battle in the courts and on the statewide ballot - Democrat-on-Democrat fighting over what to do with the surplus.At the conclusion of 2014, Bob Filner will be:
A. Serving as a consultant to a progressive charity
B. Unemployed
C. Living outside the country
D. Publicly discussing his return to San Diego politics. - True or false: The combined market cap of Google and Facebook will be greater than that of Apple by December 2013.
- Jerry Brown will win re-election by a margin of:
A. More than 30 points
B. 20-30 points
C. 10-20 points
D. 5-10 points
F. Less than 5 points
G. Hell will freeze over and he won’t be re-elected - In November 2014, State Sen. Ron Calderon will be
A. Under indictment
B. Still in the legislature but in limbo as investigation continues
C. Cleared of wrongdoing and restored to his committees
D. Looking for work outside the legislature, having resigned his seat as part of a plea deal
E. In prison - The Academy Award for Best Picture will go to:
A. Steve McQueen’s beautiful and brutal 12 Years a Slave
B. David O. Russell’s Abscam picture American Hustle
C. Alfonso Cuaron’s space horror Gravity
D. Alexander Payne’s Nebraska
F. The Coen Brothers’ Inside Llewyn Davis -
In June’s first round of the governor’s race, the second place finisher will be:
A. Tim Donnelly
B. Abel Maldonado
C. Neel Kashkari
D. Gavin Newsom
E. None of the above - How many statewide offices will Republicans win in November?
A. 0
B. 1
C. 2 or more - One California pro sports team to bring home a championship will be:
A. The Los Angeles Dodgers, as Clayton Kershaw and Yasiel Puig take down the Tigers in the World Series
B. The LA Clippers, who beat the Heat to win their first title
C. The San Francisco 49ers, who get hot as a wild card and win the Super Bowl over the Broncos
D. The Golden State Warriors, who shoot down the Pacers on their way to an NBA title
E. The San Jose Sharks, who finally turn a fantastic regular season into a Stanley Cup - True or false: California will legalize marijuana in 2014.
- By the end of 2014, the state unemployment rate will:
A. Hold steady around 8 percent, as modest growth in jobs is matched by modest growth in people looking for work
B. Increase above 9 percent
C. Drop below 7 percent, as construction rebounds and government resumes hiring. - At the end of 2014, the mayor of San Diego will be:
A. Kevin Faulconer
B. David Alvarez
C. Carlos Bustamante
D. Bob Filner
E. None of the above - Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will shock the world by:
A. Preparing to run for U.S. Senate in 2016
B. Moving to Shanghai and launching a reformist campaign for the Chinese Politburo
C. Making a bisexual-themed romantic comedy with Salma Hayek and Chris Rock
D. Accepting an appointment to the California Community College Board of Governors
E. Forming a group to buy the San Diego Chargers and relocate them to L.A. F. Declaring his candidacy for president… of the Screen Actors Guild
1. B (#Soaring). 2. C (small surplus) 3. D (health care war) 4. D (Filner discussing return to politics). 5. True (Google and Facebook > Apple) 6. B (Brown by 20-30 points). 7. B (Calderon in limbo) 8. A (12 Years a Slave). 9. C (Kashkari) 10. A. (0 GOP statewide winners). 11. E (Sharks win Stanley Cup). 12. False (it will be legalized in 2016). 13. A. (unemployment steady). 14. A (Mayor Faulconer). 15. D (Arnold goes to community college)