Here are the ten June races right now that I’m finding most interesting.
10. AD73 (Dana Point): While the national story is the fight for the future of the Republican Party is between Donnelly and Kashkari, it’s playing out in several other districts as well, including this safe Republican seat. Bryson is carrying the moderate flag, while some speculate Petrilla could follow in Donnelly’s red meat footsteps in the Assembly.
9. GOVERNOR: I debate whether to include the race to lose to Jerry Brown. However, from a campaign strategy perspective, it’s an important race to watch. Neel Kashkari and allies are pulling out all stops and bringing in the biggest names in the GOP business. But, is it too late to offset the ballots that have already been cast by Donnelly’s passionate base?
8. SD10 (Hayward-Santa Clara): Mary Hayashi and Bob Wieckowski and their allies are scraping the bottom. It’s 50-50 as to whether the fight will continue to November, or whether Republican Peter Kuo will be able to grab a sufficient share to move on.
7. SD28 (Coachella): Bonnie Garcia and Jeff Stone are fighting as if only one will emerge after June 3, although it’s possible they will continue to November.
6. CA33 (Coastal Los Angeles): With 18 candidates, there are lots of ways for the chips to fall. Ted Lieu is a favorite to be in the top two, but who will join him?
5. CA31 (Redlands): This race to succeed Gary Miller could go several ways — two Democrats, two Republicans, or one of each. Paul Chabot seems to have the Republican momentum, and it’s a toss-up on the Democratic side. It doesn’t appearMichael Bloomberg will carpet bomb Joe Baca as he did in 2012 over guns (at least in June).
4. CONTROLLER: Ashley Swearengin has a date with a Democrat on November 4.Will it be John Perez or Betty Yee?
3. SD26 (Coastal Los Angeles): While the Waxman seat is higher profile, the political dynamics of the overlapping State Senate district are much more interesting.
2. AD16 (Tri-Valley): Millions are being spent on behalf of business-aligned Democrat Steve Glazer and labor ally Tim Sbranti. One will face off against Catharine Baker (R) in November, and it is damn close.
1. CA17 (Milpitas): Can Republican Vanila Singh get enough votes to end the fight between Mike Honda and Ro Khanna, or will the battle continue to November?
That was not easy. There are quite a few others (including four within a stone’s throw of the Capitol), and of course a whole different set for November.