This marks the seventh annual version of the California Office Pool. It was inspired by the late, great New York Times columnist William Safire, who made a habit of writing an annual column he called Office Pool. In it, Safire offered, multiple-choice style, a series of possible news events that could take place in the new year. At the column’s end, he let you know which ones he thought would occur.
Safire’s focus was Washington; ours is California. My picks are at the end.
Last year, my record was mixed at best. I was right about best picture, Amy Pascal’s departure at Sony, high-speed rail’s progress, budget surpluses, Loretta Sanchez’s candidacy and gas prices – and wrong about just about everything else.
Below are the 2016 questions. Be sure to make your predictions, and clip n’ save (or bookmark and save) so we can see how we did at the end of next year.
- In the California presidential primary, what percentage of the vote will Donald Trump receive?
A. 0
B. 1-5 percent
C. 6-10 percent
D. 10-20 percent
E. 20-30 percent
F. More than 30 percent
- The biggest California political story of 2016 will be:
A. The ballot fight over taxes
B. The response to the terrorist threat
C. Unexpectedly strong Republican results in June elections because the GOP presidential contest is still ongoing and driving turnout
D. Oil battles over banning fracking and taxing gas
E. The retirement of Dianne Feinstein
F. Response to an earthquake or other natural disaster
G. None of the above
- True or False: Uber will become a public company in 2016.
- True or False: The market cap of Google’s parent, Alphabet, will be greater than that of Apple by December 2016.
- Which two candidates will emerge from the first-round election in June’s U.S. Senate race?A. Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez
B. Kamala Harris and one Republican
C. Loretta Sanchez and one Republican
D. Two Republicans
E. Some other combination. - The Academy Award for Best Picture will go to:
A. Tom McCarthy’s journalistic drama Spotlight
B. Alejandro González Iñárritu’s dark adventure The Revenant
C. Adam MacKay’s dark financial comedy The Big Short
D. Ridley Scott’s sci-fi epic The Martian
E. Todd Haynes’ period love story Carol
F. None of the above
- Which California leader will be the first to lose a post in 2015?
A. Lakers coach Byron Scott
B. Assembly Republican leader Chad Mayes
C. Yahoo chief Marissa Mayer
D. U.S. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy
- At the end of 2016, California’s high-speed rail project will be…
A. Near death after a ballot initiative to strip it of money succeeds
B. Going strong, with construction underway and legal and court barriers mostly resolved
C. Stalled in the courts
- The Golden State Warriors seem likely to repeat as NBA champs. Which California team is likely to join them and win a championship?
A. The San Francisco Giants, in another even-numbered year, win the World Series
B. The L.A. Kings win another Stanley Cup
C. The L.A. Dodgers finally break through and win the World Series
D. The L.A. Galaxy win the MLS Cup
- During the 2016 NFL season, which pro football teams will be playing their home games in Los Angeles County? (Choose as many as apply)
A. The Chargers
B. The Rams
C. The Raiders
D. None
- By the end of 2016, the state unemployment rate will:
A. Hold steady around 6 percent, as modest growth in jobs is matched by modest growth in people looking for work
B. Increase above 7 percent, as the U.S. moves towards recession
C. Drop to 5 percent, as health care, construction and logistics produce new job growth
- True or False: California voters will approve an initiative that, at least in part, preserves the Prop 30 tax rates on the rich.
Predictions. 1. (A – Trump will drop out long before June). 2. C (GOP turnout). 3. False (Uber stays private). 4. False (Apple stays ahead of Google) 5. B. Harris and a Republican (I’d guess Duf). 6. D (The Martian). 7. C. (Mayer). 8. B (HSR going strong) 9. B. (Kings win Stanley Cup). 10. D. (no NFL in LA til 2017). 11. A. (unemployment steady). 12. True