This Thursday, Governor Jerry Brown is set to make his annual State of the State address to a joint session of the State Assembly and State Senate. If last year’s is any measure of what to expect, Brown will likely tout the continued economic recovery California is experiencing.

And he has good reason to do so. Since taking office in January 2011, California’s U3 unemployment rate is down 6 points, almost 1.8 million more people are employed, and real GDP per capita has grown by about 4%. But Brown should also be careful that he doesn’t over celebrate this progress. While the state has been experiencing a slow-but-steady recovery, it has been very uneven across the state. For instance, while Santa Clara County in the heart of Silicon Valley boasts an unemployment rate of 3.8%, those in the Central Valley and Inland Empire still are experiencing double-digits rates. In fact, if you were to remove the Silicon Valley-Bay Area from California, it would reduce employment growth since 2009 from 7.5% to 5.7%.

This fact – that the state may not be firing on all-cylinders despite good macro-level metrics – is evident in the latest release of the Hoover Institution’s Golden State Poll. As is custom in most of the surveys, the poll asks a series of economic confidence questions to Californians. And while responses have definitely shown more optimism since the survey’s first poll in September 2013, since last year, the mood has flat-lined.

Change in Family Finances

In the January 2016 Golden State Poll, almost a majority (49%) said their family finances have remained the same compared to one year ago. This is unchanged from January 2015 and effectively unchanged since September 2013. The real movement has been away from the worse-off category and toward the better-off option. But here, while there was steady positive movement between September 2013 and January 2015, since last year, optimism has remained relatively still. Looking just at net “better-off” – that is the percentage saying better-off less the percentage saying worse-off – the shift between September 2013 and January 2015 accounts for 63% of the total movement between 2013 and 2016.

We see something similar when forward-looking financial optimism is questioned. When asked if family finances in six months would be better, worse, or about the same, again almost a majority (49%) went with the stagnation option. But while better-off has been steadily increasing and worse-off falling, most of the difference occurred between September 2013 and January 2015 (69%).

Lateral Job Move Confidence

And over the last year, confidence in the job market has completely stalled. When asked to their confidence to move to a similarly paying job within six months, employed Californians were conflicted (48% confident vs. 46% not confident); moreover, this is effectively no different from the 49% to 45% split from a year ago. Thus, while the lack of confidence has dropped 9 points since September 2013, all of that movement (plus some) was between September 2013 and January 2015.

Therefore, it is no surprise that Californians continue to rank the economy and jobs as issues Sacramento should be focusing on. 73% of likely Californian voters consider “strengthening the economy” as a top priority Sacramento should address, ranking as the number two most named top priority (the drought ranked first). Not too far behind the economy is improving the job situation at 61%.

So on Thursday, if you are one of the few who decide to attempt live-streaming Jerry Brown’s speech on the CalChannel, pay attention to how he talks about the California comeback. Excessive patting on the back could be bruising to the many Californians who have yet to feel the economic successes Sacramento is all-to-happy to tout and celebrate.

Hoover Institution research fellow Carson Bruno studies California’s political and policy landscape. Follow Carson Bruno on Twitter: @CarsonJFBruno