Hundreds of millions of dollars spent on legislative lobbying efforts made headlines this week but the total amount will likely pale next to what is expected to be spent this year on that other form of California lawmaking—the initiative process.
Coverage of the lobbying reports disclosed that $312.7 million was spent on lobbying the legislature in 2015, a double-digit increase from just two years earlier.
But according to initiative guru, Rick Claussen, of the consulting firm Redwood Pacific, which specializes in initiative campaigns, a crowded November ballot could produce spending of nearly half-a-billion dollars.
Claussen offered some best guess rounded figures that could be spent for and against a number of the high profile initiatives headed for the ballot.
MediCal Protection measure $50 million
Referendum on Plastic Bags $10 million
Revenue Bond Vote Requirement $30 million
Condom Requirement for Adult Films $5 million
State School Bond $7 million
Drug Pricing Mandates $65 million
Minimum Wage Increase (two initiatives filed) $30 million
Property Tax Increase $50 million
Prop. 30 Extension (different versions filed) $60 million
New Plastic Bag Fee for Environment $5 million
Tobacco Tax $100 million
Legislative Transparency $5 million
Marijuana Measure $35 million
$452,000,000 to persuade voters on policy decisions appearing on the ballot!
Not on the list: the gun control measure which should see lots of money raised on both sides; the governor’s proposal for sentencing reform; potential death penalty reform measures—one to eliminate the death penalty, the other to carry out the penalty more swiftly; political finance reform; and an attempt to end high-speed-rail by diverting rail funds to water projects. All these and more could make the ballot and ring up the initiative campaigns cash register even higher. Indeed, perhaps 20 measures might appear on the November ballot, moving the spending totals close to or well over that half-billion dollar mark.
Funding for initiatives topping the amount spent on a year of legislative lobbying should not come as a surprise to anyone closely following California politics. As academics such as Bruce Cain and others have pointed out, California has, in essence, two electorates. The electorate filtered though legislative elections and the electorate that votes directly on ballot measures.
The two lawmaking approaches yield different outcomes on issues because of the nature of the voting population in the legislative districts as compared to the statewide voting bloc. Initiatives appeal to statewide voters that often express a different opinion than legislators.
Money spent to influence legislators is a big story. More money will be spent to influence citizen-lawmakers.
Then again, there are many more decision makers when it comes to initiatives.