Working through all the numbers, complications and uncertainties of a single payer plan will take time—more time than the legislature has before making a final vote on the single-payer health care proposal in this legislative session. That means that Gov. Jerry Brown, not concerned with facing the avid single-payer supporters in his party in another election, will undoubtedly exercise his veto power if the bill comes to him.

But before that happens, there, is another number associated with single-payer—the two-thirds vote necessary to clear the legislature because of the huge tax component that must come with the package.

There are many issues that legislators and California residents have to work through to try and understand the dramatic changes contemplated by the single-payer plan under SB 562. The Los Angeles Times Melanie Mason did a good job of presenting those issues here. When it comes to the numbers associated with the measure they are so large, it might be difficult for residents to grasp.

$400 billion health care cost (a legislative committee’s estimate) versus $330 billion offered up by a University of Massachusetts study, sponsored by the California Nurses Assn., backers of the bill. Both estimates tower over the current state budget, which stands at $183 billion.

Yet, it is the tax issue that will focus the mind on single-payer. Both the senate analysis and the UMass study pointed to the need for huge tax increases.

The nurses’ association sponsored poll on single-payer that said 70% of Californians support the idea of single payer and still 58% support the idea after hearing opposition arguments.

How well did those opposition arguments push the idea of higher taxes?

Because the Public Policy Institute of California poll released the same day shows while 65% of all adults and 56% of likely voters support single payer, the numbers dropped to the low 40s if the plan raised taxes.

Given that the recently passed gas tax and vehicle fee issue has prompted a recall campaign and polls indicate real concern over the gas tax increase even before it is being collected, another huge tax increase would seem untenable and stir Californians’ well-known tax revolt fervor.