Prop 14 – Its Impact on Third Party Candidates
Proposition 14, if passed by the voters in the June Primary, will scratch the current method we elect our legislators by allowing the two top vote-getters – regardless of party – to run against each other in a November runoff election.
In some heavily Democratic districts and heavily Republican districts, this could lead to two candidates of the same party to run against each other in November.
Opponents of Prop. 14 have made the argument that this would "narrow voter choice" by prohibiting the state’s smaller third-parties (i.e. Green, Peace & Freedom, American Independent and Libertarian) from appearing on the November General Election ballot.
2010 Election Preview – Potential November Targets
It’s much
too early to start picking winners and losers for next November. In many of the potential targeted races
for congress and the state legislature, we won’t know until after the June 8
Primary who the Party nominees will be.
So, let’s
first talk about what we do know.
In November
2008, Barack Obama outpolled John McCain in 8 of 19 congressional districts, 5
of 15 state senate seats, and 12 of 29 assembly seats that are currently held
by a Republican.
There is not
a single Democratic-held congressional or state legislative district up for
election this year that John McCain carried in 2008.
For
Republicans to pick up any seats in November, they must defeat a Democrat
running in a seat won by Obama.
If the
latest Rasmussen poll taken in mid-May is to be believed, Obama’s current
approval rating in California stands at 61% – the same percentage Obama carried
this state in 2008.
2010 Primary Election Overview – Part 2: Open Seat Races
In California, we no longer have an Election Day, but an Election Month. And that month begins today, May 10, the first day that county election officials we be mailing June 8 Primary Election ballots to the more than 5.8 million registered voters who have signed up as permanent vote-by-mail voters. And these voters will be able to cast that ballot by return mail anytime between now and June 8.
Last week I posted an article on incumbent challenges, but most of the action in this Primary Election will be in the two congressional districts, 10 even-number state senate districts and 29 assembly districts – total of 41 – that are OPEN SEATS – an open seat being districts that the incumbent is not seeking re-election due to term limits, running for another office, or retiring. Because of gerrymandering, winning the Primary for the vast majority of these candidates is tantamount to winning the seat in November.
2010 Primary Election Overview – Part 1: Incumbent Challenges
A total of 551 candidates are running in the June 8 Primary Election for congress or the state legislature.
Two hundred thirteen (51 incumbents) are running in one of the 53
congressional districts; 275 (51 incumbents) are running in one of the
80 assembly districts; and 63 (10 incumbents) are running in one of the
20 even-numbered state senate districts up for election this year.
Let me first congratulate Central Valley Republican Congressmen Devin Nunes (CD21) and Kevin McCarthy (CD22), along with Los Angeles Democratic Assembly Members John Pérez – Speaker of the Assembly – and Mike Davis on their re-election this year. The four are unopposed in both the June Primary and November General Election.
California’s Plummeting GOP Registration – Part 2
Last April, I posted an article for Fox and Hounds noting the plummeting Republican registration in California, noting that not only was the statewide Republican registration of 31.1% a historic low, but for the first time there was not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that had a majority Republican registration.
Needless to say, most Republican activists in this state at the time were in a rather funky mood.
Now, nearly a year later, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings have dropped considerably, a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in very blue Massachusetts to succeed the late Ted Kennedy, and “tea baggers” along with their spiritual leader, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, have aroused passions among conservative activists throughout the nation, as well as California, that we have not seen in more than a decade.
Conservative passion may be on the rise, but according to a report recently released by the Secretary of State’s office, Republican registration continues to plummet, with statewide GOP registration falling below 31% to 30.8, while both Democratic and Decline to State (independent) registration slightly increased.
More importantly, Republican registration has continued to decrease in legislative districts that are expected to be target races this year.
A few thoughts as we leave 2009 and go into 2010
The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) recently
released a voter survey measuring voter attitudes in California on various
issues, candidates and incumbents.
In the GOP Primary race for governor, former e-Bay executive
Meg Whitman continues to show a significant lead over her two GOP rivals, Tom
Campbell and Steve Poizner: Whiteman 32%, Campbell 19%, Poizner 8%, someone
else 4% and undecided 44%.
Attorney General Jerry Brown continues to leads all three
Republican candidates, though falling short of a majority support in
hypothetical November election matchups.
Early polls are interesting, but are not always accurate
indicators as to who will win come election time. Ask supporters of Hillary Clinton and Richard Riordan on
that point.
First Look at Campaign 2010
The California elections in 2010 have all the makings of a three-ring circus and subscribers of the California Target Book, along with other political junkies, are coming together for a Sacramento conference on Thursday to get a first look on what’s coming down the pike.
California voters will likely be deciding on several ballot measures that could have a direct impact on how we elect our elected representatives and how they shall govern.
Should partisan primaries be scraped and be replaced with an open primary where the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, face a November runoff election? Should we have a part-time legislature? Should we change the way congressional district maps are drawn? Or, should we scrap everything and call for a constitutional convention to overhaul state government?
On the legislative campaign front, we’ll be replacing more than 25% of the state legislature with new people, mostly due to mandatory term limits. Those races are usually easy to read. But the massive decline in Republican voter registration makes more races interesting… and competitive. The increase in voters registering as Decline To States will also throw off the predictability scale of many contests.
Reach Out, Republicans, Or Lose!
Last May I posted an article in
F&H Daily titled, "California’s Republican Legislators – a White Males’
Club".
One of many points raised in the
article is the failure of the state GOP to elect a significant number Latinos,
Asians and other people of color to congress and the state legislature.
Among the 19 member of the House GOP
delegation, all but one is a white male. Among the 15 Republicans in the
state senate, all but two are white males. Among the 20 Republicans in the
state assembly, all but four are white males.
A Field Poll was released
recently showing the dramatic changes the past thirty years in the ethnic
makeup of California’s registered voters.
California’s Republican Legislators — a White Males’ Club
I read an interesting article last week, written by California pollsters Stephen Kinney and Matthew Jason with the California branch of Public Opinion Strategies.
According to their research, voter registration among LATINO voters is 57% Democratic, 19% Republican, 20% Independent, and 4% other; among ASIAN voters, it is 30% Democratic, 29% Republican, 39% Independent, 2% other; and among BLACK voters, it is 83% Democratic, 8% Republican, 9% Independent.
Only among WHITE voters does the GOP in California have a registration advantage, it being 42% Republican, 40% Democratic, 14% Independent, 4% other. When this group was broken down by gender, Republicans had a 46%-31% registration advantage among white males, while Democrats had a 48%-39% registration advantage among white women.
California’s Plummeting GOP Registration
Going into the 2010 election cycle — the last election in which candidates will run in districts drawn in 2001 – the biggest story is the plummeting Republican voter registration throughout California.
Not only is the current statewide Republican registration of 31% a historic low, but for the first time there is not a single congressional, state senate or assembly district that has a majority Republican registration.
Back in 2001, when the redistricting mapmakers gerrymandered the 80 assembly districts in an attempt to keep the status quo of 50 safe Democratic districts and 30 safe Republican seats, five of the assembly districts had solid Republican majorities and an additional five had a GOP registration of between 48 – 50 percent. Today, it’s zero majority districts and only two with GOP registration over 48 percent (Jean Fuller, AD32; Jeff Miller, AD71).